Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Some Rambling Thoughts on Commodities

Gas au Naturale -

With this forecast, the price has got to keep sliding..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/. That ought to keep downward pressure on Nat Gas for at least another 5 days until we start getting a feel for how the first 10 days of January are going to shape up.

Gold-I'm playing by the same $632 to $635/oz script as last time. I want to see it break above that level again before I jump in. As I think more about PPI and as I looked at the bond market's reaction to PPI, the fact of the matter is that PPI can be all over the map and volatile. Too early to think about stag-flation, at least that seemed to be the bond market reax. $6 rally could be another headfake and I still don't rule out a trip to the $600 neighborhood first. BUT, if we do continue to lift back up... I'm in depending upon strength of momentum a little bit above the $630 area - that was a great trade the last time around.

In the New Year, I may make commodities the focus of my trading activities and work. It will be a very interesting year ahead, I think, in both metals and energy.

No comments: