Sunday, December 31, 2006

Did Apple (AAPL) Buyers Jump the Gun? Apple and the 50 DMA

Just a quick comment... AAPL failed to close above its 50 day moving average on Friday. The stock closed at $84.48, 50 dma is $84.98. This will need to be watched in the coming trading days since there have been times when the stock has struggled in the 50 dma range and not surged past. The L.A. Times on Saturday ran this Apple story. An Aussie newspaper also had this ominous report. Sure, it's all well and good that Apple cleared Jobs, but it will be much better once the free and clear comes from the feds in Washington.
The premise of the rally on Friday was that analysts were thinking that catalysts in the weeks ahead would rally that stock back to its previous highs. The market was weak on Friday, but even so - there wasn't enough relief in the news of the day Friday to keep Apple at the highs of the day. There was call buying all the way out to the Jan100s... bad idea IMHO... always buy in the money, or close to it. For shareholders, the stock getting stuck near $85 might not be a big deal until the "catalysts" that analysts are looking for arrive, but for call holders in the $90 strike and above eaching passing day is tick, tick, tick, tick. But MacWorld and earnings loom large, so Wednesday will be interesting.

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