Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Energy Whipsaw and a Word about WXRISK

The muted retailing selling season came even with lower energy prices both at the pump and no doubt showing up in home heating bills. Crude oil higher earlier on the Iran tensions, has done a complete about face and is now down by more than $1/bbl following the lead of a 6% natural gas slump. Over the next 10 days here in the NY Metro area daytime high temps are forecast to stay mostly in the 40s!

This doesn't mean winter is completely DOA. I've got a new link in my favorite's section to the right. It's Dave Tolleris' wxrisk.com weather blog. Dave, or DT to his friends, is a pro meteorologist based in Virginia - he is THE man when it comes to forecasting and serves a number of big name clients in the commodities world. He's also nice enough to blog and share his weather insights with anyone who stops by his blog. Just the other day DT emailed me to say that "there may still be some winter left". We'll see what that means from a trading standpoint.

Of course, sooner than you know it, we'll be talking Spring again and with that season comes the speculation and trading opportunities in gasoline ahead of the driving season, along with summer demand for natural gas to fire power plants, not to mention the threat to energy assets from hurricane season. Reliable weather knowledge is key to being able to trade in the energy markets and DT's company is at the forefront providing that type of information.

DT's blog is something I look at every day. The first thing you realize with DT's blog is that you have escaped the powder puff and scripted world of the Weather Channel, or even your local tv weather babe or dude, and have entered a nuts and bolts world of original thinking, real science and real weather forecasting that still has wit and a sense of humor.

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