Thursday, December 28, 2006

12/28/2006 Morning Market Comment

Last night I left off with a little red-flag dollar missive. This morning the dollar is falling - with the euro up 75 points... (Read about it here) on more ECB jawboning. Jobless claims rose by a scant 1k. 10 a.m. is when there's further market moving potential with Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Existing Homes Sales. I've decided to jump back into gold futures again with a wider stop loss in light of recent negative developments in dollar sentiment and geopolitical concerns which have given gold more a safe have luster again. Even the Yuan in China rose to its highest point against the buck (Click here) ahead of the long New Year's holiday in that part of the world. Depending on the data at 10, I may add more to the gold position. This is a trade that I'm going to be in for the long haul and plan to add to in the New Year even into any weakness.

By the way, one of the blogs which I check out on a regular basis is Kevin's Market Blog. Today he has an especially insightful post about Jake Bernstein's Rules of Trading which is definitely worth a look: http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2006/12/trading-rules.html.

Marketwatch characterizes this morning's action in stock futures as the market being on "pause" after the Dow's run to yet another lifetime high. They also devote some space to Apple (AAPL) which is down only about 2% (Click Here). I thought Howard Lindzon did a clever job blogging about the potential play on words for possible Apple headlines (http://www.howardlindzon.com/) in light of what is rapidly becoming known as Apple-gate on the Street.

In addition to Euro strength, we're also seeing some bounce to the ounce in nat gas - rebounding after getting slammed earlier in the week.. even a modest bid to crude oil ahead of inventory data a little later this morning.

Barrons.com alerts to heavy insider transactions:
"Insider sales overall rose to $2.8 billion for the week ended Dec. 22 from $1.6 billion the week before, according to Thomson Financial. Most of the selling is options-related as the average premium shot up to 70%, generally a high level. The number of sellers outpaced buyers 2.7 to 1, a bearish sign.Insider sales overall rose to $2.8 billion for the week ended Dec. 22 from $1.6 billion the week before, according to Thomson Financial. Most of the selling is options-related as the average premium shot up to 70%, generally a high level. The number of sellers outpaced buyers 2.7 to 1, a bearish sign."
But then Barron's then goes on to quote a market maven who says the insider selling is not as bad as selling that preceded recent bear markets... so carry on... no worries.

It appears that prosecutors investigating the radiation poisoning of the former Russian spy in London last month are doing what amounts to "following the money"... and that there may be a tie to Yukos, according to this report in The New York Times. Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

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