Saturday, December 18, 2010

Holiday Break - BOD

Hello. The holidays have me pre occupied so posting will be fairly limited. Let's just say the problems that are in the great "out there" aren't going away any time soon. As predicted here, the stock market has had the odd, upward tilt to it and Monday is a DOUBLE POMO day. Metals have had a stupendous year, but so much for gold to $1500 by New Year's? Things take time. But where the metals are concerned, BOD (buy on the dip) remains a sound strategy. I'd be inclined to think that commodities in general, especially commodities involving the kitchen table, are going to be gainers in 2011.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Another Stock Market BUY signal?

I continue to be fairly bullish on Wall Street for reasons that I hate (mainly the QE effect). One day this trade isn't going to work so well, but for now the stock market is getting goosed. Copper has been a good corollary of late to the stock market's upside. Tonight Copper, at $4.12 a pound (around a record) is UP again.
Of course, you must remember, this QE effect is not for you the average reader. This is to prolong the illusion that it's business as usual, even as stock fund investors have been yanking money out of the market for over two years -- to say nothing of the recent massive insider selling. Still, chances (imho) are better than even that we could see further upside stock market activity (some call it a Santa rally, others call it early January effect).
Wild card: If the rout in continues on the long end of the bond market, all bets for Santa to Wall St are off. Monitor carefully.   


Worldwide coal prices are rising. especially for coking coal that is used to manufacture steel. Look for wheeling and dealing in the industry. Rio looks like it wants to buy. The Indians want to buy. Keep an eye on options activity in U.S. plays. I doubt there will be an all out buy of a U.S. coal company, but there will be deals for assets of U.S. coal companies.

Save For Retirement, Or Else.

According to Yahoo!:

Are you prepared to live on $190 a month when you retire?

For most Americans in their 50s, that's all the personal savings they'll have to look forward to during retirement, according to Wells Fargo's annual retirement survey.

The survey, which polled nearly 2,000 middle-class Americans ranging from 20 to 60 years old, found that Americans aren't saving enough, they are underestimating the amount of money they will need in retirement, and they are more likely to end up working through retirement.

While most Americans predict they will need a nest egg of $300,000 to live on for 19 years in retirement, the average savings of 50-somethings is only $29,000, which comes out to an income of $190 a month over 20 years assuming a 5% rate of return.

"$190 a month is not going to cut it," said Laurie Nordquist, co-head of Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement and Trust. "This reinforces the huge gap in terms of what people are going to need and what people have. They have a little time to add to that nest egg, but it's a huge shortfall to recover."

Even with Social Security or other sources of income, most people are not going to be able to cover basic needs with such a small amount of money, she added.

So if you fail to save enough, look forward to spending $190. This will be your meal option (and will be considered splurging):

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

HHWW up 22%

Why do i feel that queasy feeling when these bulletin board stocks go parabolic?

From Google Finance:
"Horiyoshi Worldwide Inc. (HWI), formerly Kranti Resources, Inc. through its wholly owned subsidiary Horiyoshi the Third Limited (HTT), is engaged in producing menswear, womanswear, accessories and jewelry. The Company’s products consists of three categories of goods: casual wear for men, casual wear for women, and unisex accessories. Its menswear collection features knit cardigans and crew and v-neck sweaters made from wool, silk and cashmere, as well as hooded sweatshirts and t-shirts. Its womenswear collection features short knit dresses, tank tops, leggings and scarves. The Company’s accessories line features a range of jewelry, including rings, earrings, bracelets and pendants."

mmmm. menswear and bracelets. Now that's the ticket! I have no dog in this fight, but just get suspicious when things go parabolic in the night. Anyone with any useful insight? Is it menswear with a cure for flesh eating bacteria thrown in?

Maybe menswear with a salad bar?

Watch Jon Stewart's Takedown Of Ben Bernanke's 'Not Printing Money' Claims

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
The Big Bank Theory
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical HumorThe Daily Show on Facebook

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Numismaster gives my book a nice plug!

Here's the link:

The book turned out to be quite right about the upward trajectory of metals. But the best parts are the interviews with rare coin luminaries such as John Albanese, David Ganz and Mark Salzberg. The icing on the cake comes from the foreword written by none other than Scott Travers. The latest edition of Scott's Coin Collector's Survival Manual, 7th edition is here:

Treasury touts $12 bln Profit on Sale of Citi Shares

Good for the Treasury. $12 bln is $12 bln , though it is relative chump change compared to the size of the Federal governments present debt and future obligations. Here's the problem I have: While its all well and good that the Treasury has made money back for the "taxpayers", how much more will the treasury again have to pay out in the next mega bailout of the banks? I'm not saying that dollars and cents aren't important, but what about moral hazard. Recipients of the Treasury's loans are going to be right back at Uncle Sam in the next crisis with expectation that they won't have to be accountable for doing wrong.  It's a Pandora's box that has been opened. Now all of the so major players know with absolute certainty they can take major risks and if it blows up in their faces, the Treasury (the tax payers) will be there with loans with non punitive interest rates and weak collateral requirements.  Nice long term thinking, Treasury.  Here's the link to the Treasury and their big pat on their own back:

Monday, December 6, 2010

Metals Rally. Here's Why

Silver above $30/oz today; Gold up to as high as $1428. I am very sorry I have been right about these plays because they are screaming dysfunction in our dollar based world. Some profit taking may hit soon, but the long term UP trend remains intact. Beware any financial entity that poo poos metals. The metal bears have been wrong for 9 years.
There are some significant reasons why gold and silver are surging. Even when the shysters at the Chicago Merc raise the  margin requirements as they are apt to do for their friends who are short, demand from Asia swoops in to take advantage of weakness. There is no doubt that part of China's diversification away from the dollar is an effort to buy gold. Price weakness has even invited ample demand from U.S. buyers, in spite of every shill pronouncement that gold is dead when it goes lower.
The biggest elephant in the room is the specter of CME, COMEX meltdown. If the price of gold and silver were to be dramatically pushed lower by manipulative forces, a severe drop in price would be met with demand for the metals by the TON. This would cause a delivery catastrophe for the U.S. PM exchanges in New York and Chicago. These exchanges have got to be aware of their already dubious situations as open interest on the short side is well beyond the capability to delver. 
In all, these factors argue for no more than overbought selling at times, but no great DOOM opportunities to the downside. This is especially true when the outright survival of the PM exchanges is in question.  
IF you encounter a gold short spreading lies and propaganda, give him an extra kick in the shin for me. thanks. 

Gold is UNDER owned

#Gold is under owned: as of 2009, gold was only in 0.8% of investment portfolios, see today's Wall St Journal (generally the Journal is a shill for the banking cabal so I don't link to it, but that is a useful data point). .8% means many have received bad financial advice and are likely under exposed to the best investments of this decade. Balance is the name o' the game.

Bernanke the Liar

If you watched Ben Bernanke on 60 Minutes last night. He fed you a pack of lies. He claims inflation is dormant. The data shows otherwise. From Zero Oil is at $89 a barrel, up 21% in the last year. Gold is trading at $1,413, up 23% in the last year. Silver is trading at $30, up 66% in the last year. Copper is trading at 4 per pound, up 26% in the last year. Corn is trading at 573 a bushel, up 49% in the last year. Soybeans are trading at 1,300 a bushel, up 23% in the last year. Wheat is trading at 779 a bushel, up 41% in the last year. Pork is trading at 104 a pound, up 23% in the last year. Beef is trading at 106 a pound, up 28% in the last year. Cotton is trading at 130 per pound, up 78% in the last year. Sugar is trading at 29 per pound, up 32% in the last year. Coffee is trading at 205 per pound, up 40% in the last year. 

Thursday, December 2, 2010

S&P AT it Again on Greece

S&P sure thinks it is self important, but no one with any seriousness gives a flying you know what about what this credit agency has to say. Hey, I hear France may soon be downgraded as S&P has learned Napoleon has passed away. Stay tuned.

"On Dec. 2, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BB+' long-term sovereign credit rating on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) on CreditWatch with negative implications. Standard & Poor's has also placed its 'BB+' rating on the individual debt issues of the Greek government on CreditWatch with negative implications, reflecting both the action on the sovereign credit rating and the possibility of a downward revision of our '4' recovery rating on this debt...We could affirm the ratings on Greece if our current expectations about the impact of subordination and undefined restructuring triggers are not borne out by events after we have analyzed the full ESM proposal. If, on the other hand, our views are borne out, we could lower our long-term rating on Greece, probably by one, but not likely more than two notches, depending on the details of the ESM"

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Dick Bove and his latest kooky call

He thinks Bank of America is worth $21/shr in a bankruptcy scenario. LOL. (Cue Elmo doll laugh).

Remember his "buy of a lifetime" call on Citi a few years ago? LOL (cue Elmo laugh again). Bove 2008 Citi call.