Friday, December 15, 2006

12/15/2006 Morning Market Comment

Benign inflation numbers are helping to give the bulls on Wall Street a further boost, with the Dow pushing further into record high territory. Rate cut talk is retuning to the street, though that's a mixed blessing since that implies a Fed forced to take a defensive stance against a weak economy which could hinder profit growth in 2007 - and where would that leave the Wall Street bulls?

USA Truck (USAK) is the latest trucking company to come out of the wood work warning of lower 4th quarter earnings. In their words, "As business trends in the fourth quarter developed, it became clear to us that this year's peak shipping season, which typically occurs during October and November, would present different challenges than in recent years." This is starting to make me wonder how things are going at others like JB Hunt, Swift, Landstar, etc.

Crude oil continues to nudge higher with more rebel unrest in Nigeria. With ample supply and mild weather, nat gas has been edging lower.

VIX has drifted back down below 10 again this morning, but we're champing at the bit for a new year's play. This low year end action looks strangely similar to what was seen 13 years ago... the New Year could mean a strong rebound in VIX and VXO.

As noted yesterday, OEX above 660 is very positive given call open interest. If the market can hold above this level, we should end on an up note.

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