Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Quick Late Afternoon Market Comment

Bulls and bears in the stock market remain at a stand off - in a broader market indicator sense - although clearly rotation is going on and the more time the bulls have to rotate with major indices moving little from day to day the better for the bull camp. VIX under 12 gives the bears very little to work with even with other weak technicals like low put to call. The bulls, for example, deflected a push by the bears of the S&P 500 cash down to 1404.

Crude oil's break below $53.70 is a net positive from a macro inflation standpoint for the stock market and economy even if it hits a variety of energy stocks. Most chart watchers are saying at most the bear run in crude will take the price down to $50. I haven't heard any credible calls at this point for WTI to go into the $40's. And from a stock standpoint, a variety of options services are reporting some heavy buying on the CALL side of a number of energy related stocks anticipating an eventual rebound in energy prices.

Genentech (DNA) earnings are due after the bell. Everyone is expecting great numbers. I've got no skin in that game. My attention is mostly on commodities trading these days. My two cents: I hate the chart and the recent bumps against 85-86 since October and if you're long you'd better hope it doesn't behave like it did after earnings last January.

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