Monday, January 15, 2007

Here's A Good Reason To Be Cautious

... If you're a U.S. based investor whose assets are denominated in dollars.

I'm a guy who doesn't fight the tape. If you do, you're sure to die. As I've stated before, there are a few very conspicuous bloggers who fought the tape, especially last year (I won't name names) and they've gone off the deep end - no doubt from losing the farm as the stock market rallied. But a healthy dose of skepticism is essential to staying ahead of the curve and not getting stuck with the crowd and going off the dock and into the drink like a lemming.

The FT reports the Euro has displaced the dollar in bond markets. (This is a must read story). In my view, this is one of the most significant pieces of news so far in 2007.

Since the FT has a sign up policy after the first look at their stories, it's a good idea to copy and paste the story and save it for future reference. I won't copy it and paste it to the blog because of copyright.

Remember, at the start of the year, this blog pointed you to the new reality of there being enough Euros in circulation to rival the dollar. This is what keeps me bearish on the dollar over the intermediate and long term and wary about the stock market, though I do recognize that U.S. stocks have managed to rebound and may take off again.

By the way, if you're looking for a good currency play, look no further than the land of former movie great John Candy... North of the border to Canada. Kevin's Market Blog has some superior thoughs on CAD:

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