Thursday, January 11, 2007

PM Market Comment 1/11/2007

The selling in the energy markets has been unstoppable. This has been a real bear market in action. Crude oil attained a $51 handle today, with a slide all the way down to $51.775. Not to be outdone, natural gas, slid about 7% down to $6.28 per decatherm and February reformulated gasoline futures lost 3.87 cents to end at $1.3905 a gallon... yes, finally slumping down to key multi year support at $1.39. We will see $2 gas again at most pump locations east of the Rocky Mountain states before long.

While energy was getting the shhhhinola kicked out of it again, the Dow hit its first lifetime high of the year. But it's really the leadership in tech land that has my attention. The Naz and it QQQQ alter ego is no doubt in breakout mode:
Names like GOOG and MSFT led the way higher even YHOO broke above its 200 day moving average. As noted this morning, DNA was an important ingredient needed to invigorate the biotech section of the market and it came through. I also touched on VIX this morning, and today it dropped below 11 and once again below its 50 day moving average which is a signal that the market is likely not to crash in the near term. While oil stocks and other commodity related stocks have taken a beating since the start of the New Year there's been a clear rotation into everything from semiconductors to airlines, biotechs, even the brokers. It looks like the bull is back on Wall Street. Don't get me wrong, I'm just relaying the factors behind the rise, but not excited and not a Wall Street bull. I've been fully invested on the commodities futures side and having a great time there where things actually do make sense to me. I wasn't looking for a 1929 style crash, or Tulip bulb implosion for Wall Streeet, but some sort of more meaningful time out, or breather probably would have been healthier? But who am I ask?

Dollar Index... on the verge of taking out its 200 day moving average to the upside.... getting a boost from ECB President Trichet's failure to use the word "vigilence" today in the post ECB meeting news conference. Less vigilence on rates means it's unlikely the ECB will lift rates next month. Sacre bleu!

The 10 yr Tsy Yield made it up to 4.737%.

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