Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Oil's Well That Ends Well?

I've been out this morning. Did I ever tell you the story about how I flat lined on the operating table a few years ago? One of these days I will. Needless to say, the surgeons brought me back. Today was one of those days when I was again reminded that it was good they brought me back so that I could help someone near and dear to me take care of something important that would have been life changingly bad if I didn't help them... namely my mother this morning.

Anyway, crude oil is down to as low as $51.15 today. It seems destined to run down to a $50 handle. The February contract expires on Friday which means we are going to see more volatility as the week progresses. I'm not completely satisfied with the bounce that only took it $53.52 overnight - that was it for an oversold rebound? But things are bearish. The Saudi's have said they're ok with waiting until Feb 1st production cuts to take place, and Platt's confirmed that previous cuts are being ignored by most cartel members. I re-shorted on Monday and remain short.

OIH, various oil stocks bringing more stock pain to the broader market, with indices off the best levels of the day. Speaking of expiration, it's options and futures expiration for the stock market as well. Put open interest is low for various OEX strikes, which could have a bullish bias... more on that later in the week.

Google is now above $510 and is in the top 20 of heaviest weighted stocks in the S&P 500! Amazingly enough, volume of 1,000 contracts or more in the Feb GOOG calls goes all the way up to the Feb 550 strike.

AMTD is up 6% not only decent quarterly results, but the CEO of the company also told analysts that his online brokerage could be attractive to larger firms.

INTC... I looked at the chart... I just don't see the bullish cup and handle.. I see what looks more like a developing double top. Bernstein thinks q4 numbers will be ok, but worries more about Q1 and thinks with limited visibility from Windows Vista, INTC will be forced to give a wide outlook.

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