Monday, January 1, 2007

Early State of Play

Feb gold is up $2 at about $639.50, or .3%. Silver stronger percentage wise with a gain of .8%. There was plenty of unfinished business on Friday - namely the Euro at a record high against the Yen and rising against the buck. As we start the New Year, it's likely the ECB is going to have to lift rates at a faster pace than the BOJ and that odds are increasing the Fed will lower rates sometime in the first half... looking like a dollar bearish, gold friendly scenario.

Natural gas is down 2% at $6.15.. will we see that elusive $5 handle this week? The AccuWx 5 day outlook is showing 3 days in a row of temps above 50 at the end of week here in the NY Metro area... simply amazing. WTI is down just 20-cents or .3%, less downside momentum with Iran looming in the background.

While Wall Street has been behaving as if corporate profits would run at double digit growth rates from here to eternity, is throwing cold water on that notion. The web site reports (subscription required, sorry) economists expect profit growth is likely to slow to the single digits this year and next after rising over 12% a year since 2002. And that's the forecast of economists who are usually a fairly conservative bunch.

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