Thursday, April 5, 2007

The Long Weekend Ahead

My spring break trip continues on in the mid Atlantic region. It has been good to get away from the New York metro region for a break. Channel checking has been interesting in some of the tourist regions of Virginia. Most retailers who have been willing to talk to me here in Williamsburg have reported decent business, but some have noted that activity has been down somewhat from the year before without going into specifics. This has been the case for restaurants, toy stores and book stores, etc and despite the big 400th Jamestown anniversary that's going to kick off in grand style next month with the visit of the Queen of England next month. It is certainly by no means a ghost town around here with plenty of activity. We had not realized the hoopla over the whole 400th anniversary, so we've modified our plans and will stick around here and save the Outer Banks for later this year.

By the way, since I've been at Busch Gardens this week, here's a cool visual of real estate prices over the last 120 years represented as a roller coaster:

1440 falls to the bulls and as stupid as this sounds... the next target is 1450. If you go back to the rally at the start of the year, resistance was incremental at roughly 10 point intervals on the S&P 500. All I can say is, don't fight the tape even if it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. As the roller coaster video reminds, we're in the midst of a popping real estate bubble. When those things pop, it's always messy; don;t be fooled by what ever it is that's jacking up the stock market.

I've been long in situations for the sake of those situations and not because of the broader market. Dendreon (DNDN) continues to be a star performer, rocketing again today.

Thanks to a heads up last week from the folks at I've been sitting with a long position in Sunoco (SUN) April 75 calls which have moved from 80-cents to $1.50 which is something I should lighten up on come Monday.

One of the things that I am in the habit of regularly checking is most active options and this morning Consol (CNX) popped up on the list early. The May 45s,... more than 20,000 traded today on previous open interest of less than 500. Optionmonster has a good write up on why folks should be taking a look at coal miners:

Gold is back to the $680 neck of the woods. As the dollar continues to sink can $700 be far off? As the dollar continues to sink, how long before someone notices that might be bad for the allure of U.S. assets including those coveted U.S. stocks from an overseas investors' standpoint? We'll see if tomorrow's employment figures grease the skids, though with ADP coming in close to consensus this time around, perhaps we will get some figures tomorrow without too much whipsaw effect for Monday.

I'll be back to more regular posting early next week. I think when the Yen finishes this basing phase that it's in, we will likely see more trouble for the stock market. Have a happy Easter.

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