Friday, April 27, 2007

GDP - No Surprise, IF...

... No surprise GDP would be weaker than expected at a 1.3% annual pace if you've been reading Nouriel Roubini, or John Williams. If you've only been looking at conventional soft landing views then with all due respect you are driving with the blinders on.

But it's not all about waning growth. We're all going to be having a 'Stag' party, as in Stag-flation if the data keeps coming in as it has been: Growth cools as prices jump.

Oh, don't forget, this is only the 1st guess of 1st quarter GDP. Remember what happened with 4th quarter GDP? By the time they finished revising it, growth was cut in half from the first estimate.

So SnP futures are down 4... not really so bad. Who knows, maybe some brooding for an hour that growth is cooling and inflation is becoming a very mean monkey on Ben Bernanke's back, and then back to the races on Wall Street. But then again, maybe not since a double whammy of slower growth and higher inflation is just, well... pretty negative even for this market.

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