Sunday, February 4, 2007
Baby, It's Cold Outside
It got down to 14 at White Plains last night, my good friend Wes Richards tells me it was down to 7 out in the middle of Pennsylvania this morning; so it's darn cold out and will get colder over the next two days. But look at any long range forecast and you'll notice that early next week temps are forecast to shoot up into the 30's and even 40's around the NY area! I hate the cold and I find that to be great news. Better still, if these forecasts verify (they are shaky going out more than a week) then there will certainly be a good natural gas short play sometime later in the week in anticipation of milder wx.
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What are your views of energy prices over the medium term? I am of the opinion that we are headed higher (much?!) over the next 1-3 years. Demend is ever increasing, so I cannot see energy prices coming off in any meaningfull way.
It is my belief that we are headed much higher north of $70 for oil. I have explained in detail on my blog: www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com
Guys, I agree about higher medium to longer term energy prices. My thought about a nat gas short, is a very near term thought and the pullback on milder or more seasonal temps will be tough to achieve a break below $6 per decatherm unless we get an indication of a much milder than normal March. Once the market gets over the novelty of higher than normal supplies heading into spring, we face summer and electricity demand to take care of the surplus. Dr. Roberts, I'll check the blog out a little later. Thanks to Banker and the Doc for posting.
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