I decided to spend a few more days away, and would have spent another week away were it not for the kids needing to go back to school on Monday.
After looking at the state of the ABX world tonight, I am not feeling so bullish anymore about the stock market. Everyone knows of the hyperbolic carnage that's occurring in the bbb- tranches, but the A tranches, as I noted a few weeks ago... I dont remember when, are coming under heavier pressure as the subprime catastrophe spreads into prime. Sorry, this isn't doom and gloom... this is reality. The words "catastrophe" and "carnage" are words used by the sensational rag - The Wall Street Journal. Flight to quality toward 10 year is not doom and gloom - reality again. Checkmate.
I'm not going to say we;re in for a hard landing and that the Fed will lose control, but the rah rah bulls out there clearly did not anticipated a rally in gold much less flight to quality moves to treasuries this week that could have made them big bucks this week... LOL. I'm not going to say the market is about to crash, but 1+1 has not been equaling 2 lately and it's starting to make me a bit wary.
Despite being on vacation, my open position in gold futures grew my futures portfolio by more than a ridiculous 30%, which in some ways is scary because I was holding more than I should have been holding from a potential delivery standpoint... and my stock portfolio jumped by 6% on the rise in GLD. If I had listened to the johnny come latelies out there and bought diamonds, or spiders or whatever it is that you buy on a bet that the stock market is going to explode, I'd be poorer. Moral: nothing wrong with putting many eggs into one basket if it is the right basket.
This is also the fault that I'm finding with a lot of blogs.. there is a whole world of investing opportunities beyond stocks yet the blogosphere is mostly stock centric and sure tends to avoid things like ABX. Plus, if Agent Paulson has given the green light for the hedgies to manipulate commodities again - why the blazes play around with Google when you can make a fortune on energy, or metals?!?
I'll have a full post on Sunday night.