Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Snap Back Ahead

As noted yesterday, extremes were just too extreme... with the TRIN, VIX, put to call among other indicators going through the roof no surprise that we will see a snap back. But does anyone remember what happened in '87? Big up morning, up 160 as I recall (but 160 then really meant something), then accelerated selling in the afternoon. Now the day after the crash in 87 things got so bad after the snap back rally failed that specialists were walking away from their posts (LOL that was a sight) and that's not likely to happen today. But no matter how good today's snap back, we're assured that yesterday's low print will at some point be re-tested. When has that not happened from a technical standpoint after a crash and burn like yesterday?

"The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets." -Baron Nathan Rothschild (1777 - 1836).

Some have equated yesterday's action to blood running in the streets. To an extent, I agree it was messy yesterday. But 400+ yesterday was only 3%... my how we've become spoiled, or is it just that many are inexperienced and don't have the capacity to remember the percentage sizes of 87 and 89? I think the true blood comes if the Dow falls to the 50 week moving average that I mentioned last night at some point in the not too distant future. We'll see.

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