Monday, February 5, 2007

Morning Market Comment 2/5/2007

There's a whiff of Blue Monday in the air on Wall Street at least for the stock market.

For many commodities it's another day at the races, especially in the realm of energy where the bulls are using the present cold snap for everything it's worth. That happens to be a more than 6% surge in natural gas - enough for a brief nudge to $8.01 per decatherm. Crude oil is up by another 50-cents as the bulls push further above the 50 day moving average. The metals are firming up as well with the April gold contract back above $655 and silver trying to head back to $13.50

As for the stock market - perhaps "beather Monday" is a better way of describing what may be ahead after last week's rally that in defense of the bulls saw a big Dow Theory bullish confirmation as the Dow Transport caught up to the record closing way of its Dow Industrials bretheren. As the No-doodahs guy said on his site, of course none of the Dow Theory newsletter guys, who I do respect, are pounding any bullish calls on the market. But credit should be given to where credit is due.

But there are always buts. VIX at these low levels makes me wonder... and the equity put to call is calling out a - "hey look at me, I'm falling again bulls, so along with my friend VIX who has been feeling low lately, we may just make your lives a bit miserable too". To elaborate on my put to call alter ego, that would mean the potential perhaps for a test of the middle part of the recent trading range if the bears can get their sh... err, act together? Certainly nothing major, but distressing for anyone who has bought up SPY calls, for example, at the behest of many bullish stock newsletters.

I will have more on specific stocks a little later in the morning. Sorry to run so far behind today. I decided to load Windows Vista and it was quite a nasty failure. I did partition my hard drive beforehand to protect my data, along with a back up and then attempted to load it on the new partition, but it still corrupted something on drive C and no reboot was possible. I am now putting up a fresh install of Windows XP. All this on a machine with loads of memory and dual core Pentium processor. Stay away from Vista unless you're buying a brand new machine! More on Microsoft a bit later as well.

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