Tuesday, November 21, 2006

11/21/06 Morning Market Comment

We enter another trading day with volatility near all time lows. Technically speaking the $VIX is at the lowest level in 13 years and the $VXO is at its lowest level since July of 2005. Given the extremely low level of the VIX a call play would seem to make sense and it's something we will look at later today. In the early going, there's a modest bid to stock futures; crude oil is firming up and gold is trying again with a gain of about $4/oz. There's a big platinum play going on this morning. Platinum hit a record in London on speculation a new investment fund for the metal will make it more accessible to investors, putting a squeeze on supply.

Shares of John Deere (DE) are down about 3%. While earnings beat street estimates, DE say's "equipment sales are projected to be roughly flat for the full year and increase approximately 5% for the 1st Q of 2007".

Among top-5 stocks/indexes with high put/call ratios yesterday:
Tyson (TSN), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), WW Grainger Inc (GWW) and Ameriprise Financial (AMP).

All in all, it's likely to be another less than magnamimous day on Wall Street, but as long as the bulls can keep the major indexes moving along that narrow upward channel we talked about yesterday, the case remains modestly bullish.

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