Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Morning Market Comment 2/7/2007

Did they mean it? Fed chief Helicopter-Ben Bernanke will be speaking in Omaha at 1:30 ET. Gee, I wonder if he will run into Warren? Fed Presidents Moskow and Yellen (will she be jellin'?) will also deliver speeches. What I wonder is if they will sound as dovish as the Fed statement last week? Ha... likely not.

Currencies. March EuroFx.. up 15 points and stuck. Dollar index bulls - pathetic when the real work around the 200 day moving avg has been the 200 day moving down to them. oy. Yen has been on the rise. There may be reasons for some concern for the stock market bulls and will have a separate post a little later.

Remember back in the days when Kozlowski (residing not far from in lovely Otisville, NY state prison) was getting kicked out on his rear and folks were calling Tyco, Tyco-tannic? Those days are long gone; earnings up 43%, beating by a penny a share. That's not enough to get the stock higher - it's trading down about 6-cents.

Stocks look poised to open a bit higher. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, the Fed speeches have on the bond and stock markets. I'm keeping a close high on the volatility indexes which remain low enough to raise at least one of my eye brows. 10 yr treasury yield is back up to 4.82% that could be another negative early warning indicator for the tired looking stock market.

Crude oil is up again this morning. I took the day off from trading Monday and actually woke up late this monring (7 a.m.) and missed the early European part of the morning, so I'm not in. And actually if I were in, I'd have an itchy finger on the liquidate button at $60. I'd imagine crude will go through the usual fun and games of testing that round number level, but I'm not ruling out a break above after a few tests, but thus far it has moved to within a few cents of 60 twice and then pulled back.

Gold. On the fence as well. I want to see the sellers mopped up between $660 and $665 before committing serious long futures money, though my big GLD position remains intact. Copper is where I will continue to focus (gunning again on the sledge hammer lately) until the gold bulls can get it together in the futures market.

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