Friday, February 2, 2007

Evening State of Play - It's Been a Long Day

New Jersey must be really hard pressed for money. A friend stopped for a hot dog at the first rest area on the Palisades Parkway just north of the George Washington Bridge tonight and noticed the Parkway Police were checking the plates of cars parked for sodas and bathroom breaks. 4 were towed away for various infractions and it looked as if one guy was going through a DWI check! The DWI check was good, but it seemed the police were towing away vehicles for minor infractions like past due inspections. Stop to do a number one on the PIP in New Jersey and you may end up needing to call for a cab. Nice.

Speaking of nice, I don't often talk about the actual moves in my futures portfolios, but I'm going to tonight. The darn thing on a gross bottom line balance basis rose by 28.3% this week mostly because of the rise in crude oil, but also because of some good long and short plays in the metals. I'm not even going to say how much it's up for the year because I almost don't believe it myself and don't think you would believe it if I told you. (This paragraph may self destruct at anytime since I don't like to toot my horn and give the wrong impression that these gains have come easily - they sure haven't).

Gold's $15 range was great for the nimble trader. Kevin's Market Blog is spot on with the observation that the slide today did little major damage to the gold chart: As I mentioned earlier, I am definitely looking forward to resumption of trading on Sunday night, but really the real action won't get underway until about 4 a.m. eastern time Monday when the Europeans jump back into the frey.

Crude oil. This action sure is lousy from a gas pump standpoint, but these $2 to $3 daily trading ranges have opened the door to a lot of trading opportunities beyond quick trading scalps. As I mentioned a few weeks back, gasoline demand has been cranked up at above 9 mln barrels per day. That's 9 MILLION (in my best Dr. Evil voice) 42 gallon barrels each day. Add to that, the expectation of bitter cold temps next week which will up demand for heating oil barrels and we had the recipe for a further run in the energy complex. It's as simple as that folks. It's the weather, stupid. Not you the reader, that I'm calling stupid, but the people out there who expected crude to tumble this week on so called 'ample' supplies.

By the way, who uses the word 'ample' in everyday language? Mabye I'll teach my six year old son the word 'ample'. It might sound great, "Dad, I have an 'ample' amount of chicken fingers, I don't need any more." But then again, maybe not.

But I digress. Crude is now above its 50 day moving average. See the chart I had a chart up the other night. While I have been bullish on crude, I don't see it rising much beyond $61 or $62, and knowing the way round numbers can be, there might be a pretty good battle at $60... but then again maybe not... the crystal ball is still on back order.

Stock market. The bulls want to feel the luv, but I've been feeling the inertia. I'll let Zen's Market Insight's do the heavy lifting I think his barometer in cash mode is the way to go for most folks, and as he says, it has at least kept his readership from shorting. It's not that I have anything thing against the tired and true... or, rather - oh my, i meant TRIED and true - I must be tired. It's not that I have anything against those tired and true... there I did it again, I really meant those TRIED and true blue chip names, but this market rally with techs not just in the back seat or even the trunk, but stuck under the wheel well leaves me wondering about the overall staying power of the recent 'rally'. More over the weekend. Have a great one!

No comments: