Wednesday, December 14, 2011

A Simple little chart: Gold vs $SPY

This may not warm the hearts of the stock bulls -- many of whom either ignore gold, or just hate gold. The chart below shows gold and SPY. Gold is signified by the candles, SPY is the solid black lines. Clearly it is not a good thing for SPY when gold falls. Gold is actually somewhat of leading indicator as to what may may be next for stocks.

One other notable feature of this chart is the very low RSI on gold as of yesterday (since real time doesn't display real time gold for some reason). That must come with the more expensive plan that also includes the salad bar. lol.

Gold could bounce a bit, it has today bounced off the lows at this point on extreme oversold conditions. But selling off of any near term bounce could resume in the absence of massive QE. I see vulnerability for the stock market (since it is not nearly as oversold as gold based on RSI) in the near term. This sure is very contrary to the seasonal Santa rally and then the upcoming January effect. But then again. it's not everyday that the market gets to deal with near implosion conditions in the EU.

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