Friday, May 4, 2007

Crude Oil ($WTIC) On The Verge of a 'Golden Cross', or Failure?

Something very big is about to happen with crude oil. The above chart is a 10 year chart including relative strength on top and slo-stochastics at the bottom, along with 200 and 50 day moving averages with the price bars.

While crude has been weak this week trading substantially below its 20 day, I am very intrigued by the covergence of the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The 50 dma is on the verge of moving, or crossing above the 200 dma for what is known as a bullish 'golden cross'. I'm intrigued because this 10 yr chart shows that crosses of the 50 dma above the 200 dma have led to further dramatic upswings in the price of crude almost every time.

It is rare for a golden cross attempt to fail. The last time that happened was in late 1998 leading to the huge swoon in crude down to almost $10/bbl.

This is why I think something big is about happen: Either the golden cross fails and crude tanks back to retest the lows of the year down near $50, or if the cross occurs look for new highs in crude above $80 later this year.

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