Friday, March 9, 2007

Morning Market Comment

The data we've been waiting for is out, and a sigh of relief has been heard at Broad and Wall. February payrolls up 97,000 is enough to get buyers back with S&P futures up nearly 8. In a separate report, the U.S. trade gap narrowed again in January. Across the markets, dollar is higher, bonds are lower, not much change for crude oil or gold.


What I find that's nifty is Wall Street's ability to turn lemons into lemonade. The jobs generation was the worst in more than 2 years, but whisper numbers were down at 50k so it's time to swing from the chandeliers where the bulls are concerned. The graphic to left comes from Marketwatch where their headline reads, "Reassuring Data On Payrolls". Pardon me for being a simpleton, but when the bars in the chart to the left are getting shorter that doesn't seem to be reassuring.


The S&P 500 is poised challenge the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement today.

But to be a convincingly bullish rally, volume has got push past the 2 bln mark today. It has trailed off this week ahead of this morning's data - will it sharply rebound?


Quicksilver (ZQK) is getting hammered - down about 13%. Analysts galore have been cutting ratings and estimates on the stock after the action sports apparel maker posted weaker than expected earnings. It wasn't snowy enough to spur sales of its products. Odd how the weather is blamed as being too cold for jobs creation and for hurting sales at other retailers, but not bad enough for ZQK.

5 comments:

Glen said...

"Reassuring Data On Payrolls", yup, they'll be playing that Irving Berlin classic "Blue Skies" all day today on Wall Street..."nothin' but blue skies do I see". It was the most popular song in 1929.

Lauriston said...

JimK

Your take on the employment data is excellent as usual. Pardon me for being a simpleton too, but I marvel at how they always fit the story to the events!! To use the word "reassuring" with such data is a new low...

Jim K said...

spin-o-rama... amazing, the lack of skepticism by business journalists these days. But then again, too negative and a falling market will scare away their audience.

pythagoruz said...

I was just wondering about your fib chart. Isn't the top usually set at the previous high and not the high on the day that began the move. This would place the 50% retrace at 141.88 and the 61.8% retrace at 142.95. This makes a big difference in my view since the next move is a very large one to the downside for an ABC correction. I don't want to get heavy on the short side again too early or too late. I love the site, keep up the good work!

Jim K said...

pythagoruz, good catch. i have fixed the error. Thanks!