Lennar (LEN)

Lennar (LEN) and Gamestop (GME) will be among the most notable companies posting earnings Tuesday morning. At LEN Earnings of 49c are expected on revenue of 2.54 bln - down from the year before of course. It was oh so tempting to pick up LEN puts this afternoon, but I refrained. If the world were normal and things worked the way you would expected them in above board manner, a put bet would make perfect sense. But with all sorts of accounting tricks available to home builders to delay write offs and the option for home builders to call a bottom in the housing market each quarter with impunity, buying puts ahead of earnings seemed too risky. If the bottom falls out tomorrow, it won't be a one day affair and there will still be the opportunity to buy puts. A real selloff after earnings in a home builder would also be a significant event and mark a nastier turn in sentiment against them. But given the ability for home builders to promise better times ahead and sugar coat - who knows? LEN could rise tomorrow. Maybe I've become too much of a cynic.