Thursday, March 29, 2007

Morning Market Comment

I've got a loaded schedule today, so this post will be brief and posts today will be limited.

As noted last night things had simmered down considerably for stock, energy and currency futures and as the night progressed stock futures gained a modest head of steam and are a bit higher this morning. As I've noted over the last few days, that low point of the FOMC meeting day in the neighborhood of 1410 remains an area of key interest. If we break below it, very bearish implications, but certainly if we can stay above it - yesterday SPX finished at 1417 - the bulls are still in the game. We'll see how much game they have with the market set to move higher. One positive for the bulls today - Yen futures are down more than 60 points,

Today's economic reports are supposedly, at least according to the mainstream media, giving the markets a boost - a final revision of GDP to show 2.5% economic growth. I would only remind, that there is this thing called the first quarter that's coming to an end and that very strong March economic activity is needed to keep GDP above 2% first quarter from after weak January and February data. Jobless claims also moved to a two month low.

Boone Pickens was on CNBC this morning. He says, "you will see oil at $80 before you see it at $50". I have no reason to doubt this guy given a wide range of factors which I don't have time to write about this morning. Crude up again today, creeping toward $65 which could certainly be a negative factor on equities if it continues to advance today.

I finally threw in the towel on KB Homes (KBH). Yes, that was my 7.1 mln share block that crossed the tape this morning handled by Lehman at between $43.10 and $43.50. KBH down 1.6% following that trade, and of course I'm only kidding about it being my trade.

Dendreon (DNDN) will be halted most of the day as the FDA decides the fate of the company's Provenge immunotherapuetic for treating prostate cancer. My father had this dreaded disease which killed him in 2005; it was a miserable and painful experience at the end for him. Well beyond the potential return for investors, I'm hoping that for sufferers of the disease that Provenge really offers another option in what is a situation of very limited options once the disease progresses to its advanced stage.

I mentioned Circuit City (CC) last night. Jeffries this morning notes that the "sweet spot" in the flat panel tv sales cycle has already passed which could hurt earnings as well as valuation. I just see trouble here going into earnings for both CC and Best Buy (BBY).

A steal of a deal? US Steel to Acquire Lone Star Technologies for $2.1 Billion.

Bear Stearns doesn't view a takeover of Hershey (HSY) as likely. Don't have time to put up a chart of HSY, but looking at it last night... it has reached a classic triple top point.

Pete Stolcer's has a full list of movers this morning.

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