Friday, November 5, 2010

Expect another 20% drop in Housing: A. Gary Shilling

Gary Shilling holds the distinction of being right about the first financial Tsunami. He sees more Tsunamis ahead. He is warning of big, further downside in housing:

"A further 20%
drop in U.S. house prices due to huge
excess inventories of over 2 million
and foreclosure delays may push
underwater homeowners from 23%
of mortgagors to 40% and precipitate
a self-feeding spiral of walkaway
homeowners and nosedive in
consumer spending. Other
roadblocks on the deleveraging
highway may include a crisis in U.S.
commercial real estate."

He further states,
"Homebuilders (unfavorable). Massive inventories, enhanced by further foreclosures, are likely to depress existing home prices by another 20%. This and the resulting weak sales will hurt homebuilders. The flatness in these stocks as the S&P 500 rose in recent months is ominous. Implement with individual equities or ETFs."

Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Shilling is not as well known as Roubini, but Shilling is more often correct.

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