Sunday, November 14, 2010

Carnage Alert?

No, not the whole market, but in Potash ($POT) as $BHP has withdrawn its $40 bln offer. This may impact other ag related names like Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) to name a few. POT closed at just above $139 on Friday, the offer was pegged at $130 on a per share basis. When the attempteddeal materialized over the summer it seemed like it would be bested by another suitor, but no other bid ever materialized. Over the last few weeks POT started to deflate as the Canadian government would offer no support to BHP's offer which to many seemed like a low ball bid.

In the long run, BHP will be judged to be penny wise and pound foolish. Potash is a key piece of the puzzle in agriculture and Potash just happens to be number one in the business of providing potash. POT will only grow stronger over time. Chain Saw Al Dunlap, notorious in the1990's for prepping companies for sale, once told me, "everything is for sale except for your dog and your wife". Had BHP offered a blowout bid closer to $200, it's quite likely the Canadian government would have looked the other way. Yes, everything can be put up for sale, everyone does have a price.

Edit: As of about 9 e.t. POT is down about $1. There's still a belief that another bid could emerge.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jim, from everything i understand about the company...it probably is to be a $200 stock...if it drops and closes the gap at 115 it would be a a real bargin ...i think!?

JimK said...

Over the long term, I don't see how Potash plays can lose.

Anonymous said...

POT would have been a decent short ---for a quick trade this morning....do you think the down draft is over for the stock for now?

JimK said...

You'd think that there would be some short term downside, but now it's on the verge of turning green.

Anonymous said...

good call on this one Jim....looks to be a lot of air below....where is short term support?