Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Sloppy Finish and a Buyer's Strike

When the market was approaching a 50 point Dow gain and closing in on S&P 500 1400 earlier today, volume was again lighter than what we saw during the recent selling days. It's actually good to see that people are not so nutty as to all jump back in so quickly after last week's carnage. Volume was also sub-par on yesterday's Dow triple digit advance. The Dow couldn't hold on to the day's gains and slipped 15 points today. I am relieved that the VIX rose back above 15 because my heart would not be into declaring a VIX buy signal on a close below its 10 day moving average which is right at about 15 even. For a time today the VIX fell to as low as 14.52. I am still in the camp that says we retest Monday's lows and actually break through them.

Perhaps the buyer's strike will resolve itself with the employment data due Friday? Jobless claims data is due tomorrow, but no other major economic releases for the market to feed off of. Perhaps we drift again for another day, but with the economic data that's due Friday and the prospect of a weekend ahead, there might be more action on the final trading day of the week.

4 comments:

cheesefries said...

Jim,
It sure looks like the financials weakened as the day went on ala last week. Your LEH puts should be well into the money soon. I really enjoy your blog and value your insight.
I have been buying more and more protection the last 2 days. I look for the Q's to retest last Tuesday's lows soon. Any thoughts on NZ raising rates halting the carry trade or are other ominous storms brewing?
Thanks!

jim r said...

jim,

i second the kudos mentioned above! i think thatn tomorrows unemployment claims are more interesting and timely than the friday report. it will be more "real" time if you will and claims have been decidedly weak lately.

Jim K said...

Thanks Cheesefries and Jimr. NZ raising rates... interesting stuff. been playing the playstation3 hedgehog game with the kids.. going to look at it all a little later.

cheesefries said...

Nothing beats hedgehog, I like you man.