Thursday, March 1, 2007

Quick PM Thoughts

For the Conspiracy Theorists Out there, I have the answer concerning who saved the stock market today.

Yes, that all powerful group. NEVER under estimate them.

Ok, in all seriousness, oversold as the real answer, anyone? Dow 12,000 was nearly taken out this morning, but support found in the area of early December lows.

So another overold bounce today, but breadth was never able to turn really decisively positive today even with bouts of program buying that sparked large NYSE and NASDAQ TICKS. While that was happening, ETF and Index put volume remained through the roof.

If you look closely at the Dow chart, and this might be stretching it since we're only talking 3 trading days including Tuesday, we're looking at a lower low today compared to Tuesday and a lower high as well.

There's some gloatation out there that this morning was a "classic buy on the dip" opportunity. Really? Buy on the dip seems to be a great old saw for bull phases, but in bears, maybe sell on strength is better? I guess it depends on ones perspective on whether they feel this is merely a correction in a bull, or the start of a bear phase.

I remain skeptical, especially given a very important element beyond the stock market. The Japanese Yen. I've got a meeting I need to dash off to and won't be back until much later this evening, but when I do get back, I've got a lot of thoughts on the carry trade situation. I think the staying power of the Yen rebound will in large part determine how much rebound or further decline we get in the stock market.

1 comment:

Lauriston said...

Jim K

Definitely a short the bounce environment. I was prepared to go long this morning when the VIX got too stretched on the upside and that worked well as I documented. I think there is still more upside to the "end-of-bounce" that can be shorted. Put/call ratios still quite high. In the past few months Fridays have been rather dull for the stock markets, so maybe tomorrow I will take a rest as I did yesterday. I am really interested on you "carry trade" take, as I think this is going to be the issue for the coming weeks. Thanks.