What would convince me more that history ISN'T going to repeat itself and that another larger leg down won't appear f0r the market is if we see the VIX substantially pierce the 200 day moving average which is 12.98. We're already close with the VIX finishing today at 14.37. If we get a sudden close below the 200 day, then it may really be time to better appreciate the global liquidity phenomenon (and whatever else may be going on at the Treasury, or the NY Fed) and throw in the correction, or bearish towel.
But clearly we've got a market that recognizes the risks. At just before 2 p.m. theflyonthewall.com put a one line headline out:
theflyonthewall.com: New Century-NEW speculation company may file for Chapter 11 is circulating-Rumor :theflyonthewall.com
Undestand that theflyonthewall's headlines are seen on major trading desks everywhere because its headlines flash on the Bloomberg Terminal. I've got to believe that the headline took the market off the highs. Here's a 5 min chart of the Dow today - notice what happens at just before 2 p.m. ET:
Still, the major indices moved higher, including a Dow rise of 68. As noted last night, I had wondered if the market would drift ahead of tomorrow's employment numbers. Well, with the strong start, it did more than drift, but volume again meandered. The rises of the last few days would have a lot more meaning if they were accompanied by heavy volume, but volume ahead of tomorrow's data has trailed off sharply.