Friday, October 29, 2010

My Market Prediction for Next Week

It's going to be a roller coaster ride and the bias could be to the downside. There are many events that could move the markets: the Tuesday election results, the possibility of Bank of Japan dollar buying to curb the yen's ascent, The Fed's meeting and what size QE2 will take, the Friday monthly jobs numbers. Of course, no one knows the market reaction to all of this.

Much attention is focused on Fed dollar printing (QE2). Can the Fed come out and say outright that it plans a $4 trillion or more QE? Nope. Such an announcement would spark all out trade/currrency wars with a disorderly dollar decline. The odds are the Fed will be fairly conservative sounding about QE. I expect the usual announcement about how the Fed is prepared to do what it takes to keep the economy going. We could very well be marching into a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. Ultimately, I believe Ben Bumnanke will do QE to infinity, but it would be foolish to think they will announce it. As always watch their behavior and take what they say with a grain of salt. The motto on the Fed's door should read, "ASK ME NO QUESTIONS AND I WILL TELL YOU NO LIES".

The elections. All I can say is that a Republican takeover of the House is expected and had better happen. The markets are counting on total gridlock. C'mon, you surely don't believe that there will be massive changes under a Republican controlled house? LOL. While I am far right of center, I sure don't expect much to change. Our entire politician system is corrupt and at present incapable of doing the right thing. The draconian measures needed to cure our fiscal problems would be met by the veto pen of Obummer and lacking votes to override, and that's assuming there is even the political will of even a Republican led House to do anything beyond what would amount to token spending cuts, or baby steps. The conspiracy theorists think the market will  be allowed to tank on Wednesday so Obamamama can blame a Republican victory for sending fear through the markets. I don't see high odds of that, but who knows anymore.

Government jobs data. Do you follow those numbers and look at them as being facts?  The numbers are a jumbled mess with many assumptions ie. the birth/death rate. Look at today's GDP report. Disposable income was down ex the government. So how do you suppose consumption grew by more than 2% when income is stalled out like a flooded out car? Look for more wacky numbers come Friday.

Fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. If you like to trade in choppy markets, more power to you. I'm going to be an observer.

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