Wednesday, August 15, 2012

I'm Back

  • 8/15/12
    I’m Back
    I wish I could say I was away for a vacation, but very sadly my wife’s brother was killed in a workplace accident and we ended up rushing out to Belleville, Illinois for the wake and funeral.
    Parched fields of corn caught my eye while we were in that Midwest location. After trading as low as 35 in May and June, the CORN ETF continues to hold above $50. The actual September corn futures have moderated a bit in recent days thanks to cooler weather break and are trading below $8 a bushel, but the concern with this and other crops is the need for drought busting weather. That seems elusive at the present time.
    The weather guessers at NCEP are scratching their heads seeing EC, or equal chances for above or below normal precip moving toward fall. At this point, people should not only be praying for rain, but doing rain dances, etc.
    There has been a drought of sorts for gold: a QE drought. Thus far, it has been all quiet from the Fed. I could spend lots of time speculating on Fed possibility, political ramifications, etc., but let’s wait to see what Fed officials attempt to jawbone (speak about) in the coming weeks for QE hints. Keep in mind, the Fed jawboning has had a lot more to do with calming financial markets and reminding the stock and bond casinos that the Fed “stands ready” to act though it has yet to act again to satisfy the animal spirits in search of QE (though you can certain argue that by not acting, the Fed is acting).
    Related: Goldman Sachs is saying they do NOT anticipate QE3 this year gosh, maybe QE is coming, or GS just went short the market!
    Related: Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets
    A brief closing thought…
    As we move deep into the heart of August, markets are operating at a very dull roar on both sides of the Atlantic. Volume may be drifting lower, but the problems have not disappeared.
    German Bund Yield Reaches Six-Week High on Spain Aid Speculation via @BW

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