Tuesday, November 15, 2011

11/15 Market Comment: Just Another Day of Eurp Angst


I hear the Wall Street pom pom boys say it often. “Stocks are cheap”. And they sight something like forward p/e ratios and pass themselves off has Whiz Kids. Perhaps stocks are not as cheap as one might believe. This is definitely worth a look. I've never seen this chart. It's very clever: CHART OF THE DAY: One Huge Reason The Stock Market Isn't Cheap...

From the early futures indications, it appears stocks will become a bit more cheaper, at least at the open. FWIW from a CNBC interview: Blackrock's Fink: "more cautious" on stocks than he was 2 mos ago. "We have a lotta event risk in the next few wks." No kidding, Sherlock. Lol. Euro troubles continue to weigh on sentiment.

If I am going to be wrong about the euro's eventual demise it will be because it happens quicker than expected. The contagion is spreading. The credit markets know the score before the equity markets. Here's a Bloomberg screen shot. Ugly-ugly-ugly French CDS chart: http://ow.ly/1ApiWE

Italian 10 year yields are back above 7%.

Even in Belgium 10 yr yields are approaching 5%. This is the new things are lookig up, but in the wrong sort of way.

Gold is up about $5. The Zero Hedge blog reports that billionaire investor John Paulson is moving from GLD paper to bullion.

Officially massaged and understated inflation data shows a roughly 6% pace of PPI inflation. In the real world, it's clear we're looking at inflation a few points above the gubbamint numbers, at least according to such luminaries as John Williams and his Shadow Government Stats web site. Oct. PPI: -0.3%, vs. Cons. -0.1%, Up 5.9% YoY; Core PPI Unchanged.

We will shop until we literally drop. There are plans being hatched by the nation's largest retailers to open Thanksgiving evening. Yes, they can't wait for the Friday free for all known as Black Friday. I can just imagine what will be going on at stores Thanksgiving night. “Ooooh, I can buy a 4th iPod for myself! . Data today: Oct. Retail Sales: +0.5%, vs. Cons. +0.3% .

If you believe in the rule of law, this ought to get your hackles up: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/commodity-customer-coalition-objects-jp-morgans-super-priority-protection-over-mf-global. JP Morgan thinks it's more important than everyone else in the MF debacle.

If you missed it last night, here's the icky, uncomfortable interview Bob Costas did with Jerry Sandusky: http://read.bi/uuvD4c. Any of my male readers horse around with other males but don't touch inappropriately?

Any good news? Wal Mart reports first sales rise in 9 quarters. Gosh, that's more than 2 years. But I take that back. It still missed EPS estimates.

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