Thursday, September 30, 2010

Dollar decline

Before we all have an "it's a cookbook!" (Twilight Zone) moment over the state of the U.S. dollar and collectively freak, let's keep in mind that the dollar index is still well above its 2008 lows.  Yes, it's declining from a triple top formation, but let's wait until 71 is pierced before picking out the dollar's casket. No doubt, the moves by the Fed to soon enter into another round of quantitative easing are DXY negative. The massive federal liabilities ($100 trl+) are also dollar negative.The dollar bears, however, are still going to be fighting a tough battle since the euro is not a worthy dollar alternative (DXY is heavily weighted in euros). Yes, the long term trend is DOWN and eventually out for all paper fiat currencies, but I am not anticipating that I shall wake up tomorrow to the reality of needing to barter the tuna fish in my pantry for a gallon of gasoline as all major economic players are pretty much in the same boat.. The dollar collapse has been years in the making and will take a little more time to play out.

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