Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Economic Jumble; A Gold Standard

2/28/12
Economic Jumble

One day the economic data points to an exciting economic recovery – the next day (like today) – the economic data is runs on the cold side. Eco report #1: Home prices fell in December for a fourth straight month in most major U.S. cities, as modest sales gains in the depressed... PLEASE READ MORE HERE... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/economic-jumble-a-gold-standard/

Monday, February 27, 2012

Gold, The European Bailout, the G20; Crude Oil Troubles

2/27/12 Gold Outlook Remains Positive after Weekend G20 Meeting I continue to feel good about the prospects for a further rise in the POG (price of gold) as an on going trend, though short term pullbacks are always possible.. My early year gold outlook had been tempered by over concern about downward manipulation and a... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/1860-2/

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Weekend Update #1 Warren Buffett Again Bashes Gold – And I’m fine with That

2/25/12
On this fine Saturday I have spent some time reading the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter for 2012. Not surprising is the usual Buffett speak against Gold:
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying...
Please read more at... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/warren-buffett-again-bashes-gold-%e2%80%93-and-im-fine-with-that/

Friday, February 24, 2012

Stuffing The Financial System, or Going from Deflation to Inflation; Spanish Treasure Plunder

Crude remains the focus for market participants. The first question that pops into my little mind is why stock market volume is so low? We know the retail investors have largely been chased away. In a simple sort of way low volume can enhance volatility which never the less remains low at below 20. The chart... PLEASE READ MORE HERE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/stuffing-the-financial-system-or-going-from-deflation-to-inflation/

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Crude’s Spike; Dow Theory Warning; Gold Reversal; Goodbye Greek Gold

2/23/12
There’s no doubt about it, the Iran fear trade is on as crude trolls higher within the $106 handle. Without ruminating over failed, or successful U.S. foreign policy that goes hand in hand with OPEC’s ability to deal with recalcitrant members of its cartel, I see the bottom line as being, ‘you screw around... Please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/crudes-spike-dow-theory-warning-gold-reversal-the-plunder-of-greece/

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Those Pesky Credit Default Swaps; Greece, Iceland, Gold

The New York Tines must be reading my mail. I have long been harping about the danger Credit Default Swaps, otherwise known as CDS (I have described what these are before so you must know what they are: insurance mostly on sovereign debt, but they have also infected currencies and a variety of financial instruments). Now the Times is reporting that there are renewed concerns... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/those-pesky-credit-default-swaps-greece-iceland-gold/

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The Greece Deal; A billionaire Who Likes Gold

We are now being led to believe that Greece and its creditors have reached what the media is calling a “deal”. It’s a deal alright, a deal for more failure since the $170 billion deal is largely predicated on Greece adhering to strict austerity measures to reign in spending and reduce debt to 120.5%... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-greece-deal-a-billionaire-who-likes-gold/

Monday, February 20, 2012

Time to Celebrate $105 WTI Crude?

2/20/12 Yes, it must be time to celebrate a near 2% rise to around $105 per barrel for West Texas intermediate crude. That’s what one might conclude is happening by simply looking at a trading screen without knowing exactly what the headlines are. Crude is up, up, up and stock futures are also firm (though... Please Read more at: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/time-to-celebrate-105-wti-crude/

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Off Topic: Some Future Hope $$

A music video done by the friends of my youngest son (and my friends as well). My son is the guy in the dark blue shirt. Everyone in this fun video is skilled. The video taken in the back yard at my son's friends' house.



Friday, February 17, 2012

The Wonders of QE

It’s Friday, and this happens to be a particularly special Friday as this 17th of February marks the eighth birthday of my youngest child, Nathan. Nathan means gift from God – all children are, but the circumstances surrounding Nathan’s birth were miraculous and so we chose that name. Later today we will converge on Chuckie... Please read more: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-wonders-of-qe/

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Tick, Tick, Tick

What I am referring to in the title of today’s post is actually known as the TIC report. The Treasury describes what the TIC report is. It’s IMPORTANT ... PLEASE CLICK HERE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/tick-tick-tick/

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Budget Folly - or - Flying a Jumbo Jet Into a Mountain

Since it’s been over 1,000 days since the Senate has passed an actual budget, the president’s little fiscal 2013 budget plan doesn’t mean a thing. Government has been running and growing without a formal spending blueprint for quite some time. For anyone looking for a plan that would stop our growing national debt problem, you’re... Please read more here... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/budget-folly/

Monday, February 13, 2012

More Greek Promises; A drunk Federal Reserve

2/13/12 Yes, step right up to the wicked and perverse world of Wall Street where the concept of bringing a country’s people to their knees is reasons for Wall Street’s denizens celebrate. Stock futures have been higher through the night and into the morning thanks to passage of further austerity measures described by CNBC as... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/more-greek-promises-a-drunk-federal-reserve/

Saturday, February 11, 2012

I AM GREEK AND I AM GOING TO EXPLAIN GREECE TO YOU

A letter I received via email.  Interesting. Is it true? Don't know. But it is thought provoking:


I AM GREEK AND I AM GOING TO EXPLAIN GREECE TO YOU

A few weeks ago, I read a beautifully written seven page article in Vanity Fair, about the crisis in Greece. Unfortunately 80% of it was untrue. However, there was an interview that summed up the average Greek's experience pretty well.

“….An Athenian construction company had built seven giant apartment buildings and sold off nearly 1,000 condominiums in the heart of the city. Its corporate tax bill honestly computed came to 15 million euros, but the company had paid nothing at all. Zero. To evade taxes it had done several things. First, it never declared itself a corporation; second, it employed one of the dozens of companies that do nothing but create fraudulent receipts for expenses never incurred and then, when the tax collector stumbled upon the situation, offered him a bribe. The tax collector blew the whistle and referred the case to his bosses—whereupon he found himself being tailed by a private investigator, and his phones tapped. In the end the case was resolved, with the construction company paying 2,000 euros. “After that I was taken off all tax investigations,” said the tax collector, “because I was good at it.”
[link to www.vanityfair.com]

Another huge misconception I keep hearing is that Greeks do not pay their taxes and they retire at 50. Reality be told, the retirement age in Greece is 65. While being the most expensive country in the Eurozone, Greece also has the lowest income, family income is between 15,000 to 35,000 Euro. Average tax is between 6,000 and 9,000. If they don't pay tax, they go to jail.

An example of how “Greece kills her children” is freelancing. A freelancer MUST pay mandatory insurance. 200 Euros a month for new freelancers, 1,200 a month the closer they get to retirement age. Don't pay? Go to jail.

The only people who do not pay taxes are a small number of 150,000 people (which are mostly, but not limited to, doctors, lawyers, and engineers). These people have been declaring between 9,000 to 12,000 while having millions in their bank accounts.

Bribery is huge in Greece, mostly done in the public sector. Politicians give money to people in exchange for political support and protection. Add to mix, people were being forced (and some choosing to) pay off “bribery fees” to bypass complicated bureaucracy and having documents forged. Even bribing a judge to rule in somebody's favor, no matter how guilty they are, is not uncommon.



Another misconception is that Greece is a Socialist country, and I have to laugh every time I hear somebody parrot to me what they have heard of TV.

The current political party (PASOK) was formed under the pretense of Socialism. But in reality what is infront of us is a mafia-style party. But we must strep back to understand.

In the 1980's Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou (today's current Prime Minister’s father) took out extreme loans to bribe people to support his political party.

In 1999 then PM Kostas Simitis went on TV telling people to invest in the stock market. Fraud companies started popping up everywhere, but then there was the crash; the stock market suddenly fell less then 20% - its original index value. Many people lost their savings while others found themselves indebted to banks.

There was a sudden surge of credit cards, which previously was hard and rare to get. This kept debt increasing in the private sector.

It was time to enter the Erouzone with deception with CDS and Golman Schacs moving debts toward later years to produce a low enough deficit in order to enter the Eurozone. They called this “creative logistics”.

Now to the most recent events that led to the IMF. After the crisis in the U.S., Greece was starting to shake a little bit, but not bad because the economy was isolated. Andreas Papandreou's son, George Papandreou kept making attempts to overthrow the New Democracy government, all the while an extremely overpriced Olympic Games was adding to the debt.

The moment George Papandreou became PM, he and his friends organized the purchase of 1.2 billion Euros of CDS through the Hellenic Post Bank. Then he and his minister of economics toured the world, spreading rumors that the Greek economy is like the Titanic and ready to collapse.

In cooperation with the bank of Greece (which is very much like the Federal Reserve) they changed the CDS laws from T3 to T10. This meant: depending on the course of CDS, the speculators could cancel CDS purchases; the original 3 days was moved to 10. This gave them the time to maximize profit with out depositing one single Euro. Therefor, they launched “spreads” (bond payoff difference from the Germans) from about 120 to over 800. That meant from every bond, the Greek country would have to pay an extra 7% of interest on all spectators.

George Papandreou managed to turn a small crisis of debt into a massive market crisis. And while doing this, he was working to bring the IMF into the Eurozone. And this is how the IMF came to Greece.

Just because Greece doesn't have its own currency, there has to be an inside deflation. Within one year of being in the IMF, GDP increased rate went from +3.1% annually to -6%. This can be compared to the Great Depression of the United States.


A 110 billion loan from the IMF and EU were given to convert bonds to mortgage enabled national loans on which Greece resigns sovereignty.

the IMF is demanding control over the country’s economy so they may be strictly in charge of a privatization program that will sell off Greece’s public assets and funell proceeds to the banks.
Greece is to sell off (if not has already done so now) all major companies, the Hellenic Postbank, utility companies, the Thesslakanki and Piraus ports, beaches, islands- all for pennies for the dollar. As I type this, Steve Forbs, the Chinese, and various other vultures from all over the world are in Athens for the pickings.

So far the banks have received 108 billion Euros of guarantee from George Papandreou. With this money the banks go to the Central European bank and take loans with 0.78% interest rate, and return the money on loan to Greece with interest of 5%.

What we are witnessing, is treason at its height.

Greece on the Brink

There more scary headlines out of Greece Today. From CNBC: Greek Prime Minister warns of collapse if bailout deal rejected; "We are just a breath away from ground zero." http://www.cnbc.com/id/46351059

Of course a collapse looms. This isn't Earth shattering news. Not to be sanguine, the CDS risk is the big unknown. The needed aid of around $200 bln isn't the problem - that's the carrot on the stick for Greece to pursue as the BANKSTERS figure a way out of their derivatives mess.

My gut tells me that should a hard default happen March 20, 2012, there will be some days and weeping and gnashing of teeth and then magic money will come to the rescue to stave off a system seizure in the near term. But (and this is a big but) larger problems still loom in the form of Portugal, Italy and Spain. This is only the beginning.

In a Manner of Speaking, The Earth is Bankrupt...

I came to this realization after a federal proclamation that people who favor the GOLD STANDARD are extremists in the eyes of the government.





Friday, February 10, 2012

Greece Troubles; What a Gold Standard May Look Like; Buffett’s Take on Gold

02/10/12

It’s the usual mess for the markets again for this Friday. The downward action is being blamed on the sort of selling that begets selling which started in Europe on what was taken as bad news from Greece in the wee hours of the U.S. east coast morning. And now we see selling in... PLEASE READ MORE AT: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/greece-troubles-what-a-gold-standard-may-look-like-buffetts-take-on-gold/

Thursday, February 9, 2012

All They Can Do is PRINT and HOPE

Print, Print, Print. It’s all the Central Bankers know. Another 50 billion pounds will be injected by the Bank of England to supposedly shore up the British economy. One the face of it, $50 bln pounds, or $79 bln doesn’t sound like a big deal, but it is when one accounts for the size of the British economy – we’re actually talking the equivalent of Fed printing to the tune of... Please Read More here... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/all-they-can-do-is-print-and-hope/

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Bernanke is Gold’s BEST Friend; Greece Relief? Not so Fast

Bernanke spoke yesterday on Capitol Hill and voila, gold prices rebounded from the day’s low. Bernanke talked about how the Fed would protect Americans (read the big banks) from the mess in Europe. What sort of protection would the Fed provide? Of course — liquidity as in print, print, print. Yes, Ben Bernanke is gold’s... Please read more here... an NO extra charge... FREE.. http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/bernanke-is-golds-best-friend-greece-relief-not-so-fast/

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Gold VALUE vs Dollar DILUTION and other Gold Thoughts

2/7/12
I have already covered this subject, but it is worth repeating:
Yesterday I touched on the Velocity of Money and how that Velocity is not multiplying, but contracting. In other words, you save a dollar at the bank, the bank can then lend ten dollars from that $1 thanks to what has become the curse known as fractional .... Please read more here free of charge:  http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/gold-value-vs-dollar-dilution-and-other-gold-thoughts/

Monday, February 6, 2012

Numbers That Don’t Add Up; No Greece Relief

2/6/12
I am flummoxed by the latest employment numbers. The headline numbers on Friday depict a picture of recovery: January unemployment fell to 8.3% and non-farm payrolls jumped by 243,000.  But here is what I just don’t get: By the government’s own numbers in deeper layers of the employment report, civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December, 2011 to 139,944,000 ... read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/numbers-that-dont-add-up-no-greece-relief/

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Gold's Fair Value is $13,500??

This weekend, I draw your attention to an informative piece from Stocopedia. This article suggest that fair value for gold is in the real of what may seem incredible at the present time: Over $13,000 dollars. Please click here: http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/how-to-value-and-invest-in-gold-63785/

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Platinum Treasure?; Gold on the Rise; Stocks Run in Place

2/2/12
Let’s start today with something I haven’t talked about too much lately in this space, but have mentioned in some of my public speaking engagements: Platinum. I’m inspired by this story: PORTLAND, Maine — A treasure hunter said Wednesday he has located the wreck of a British merchant ship that was torpedoed by a... Read more HERE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/platinum-treasure-gold-on-the-rise-stocks-run-in-place/

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Facebook and CNBC’s Usual Ignorance; PIMCO’s Gross Spills His Guts – Talks About GOLD

The first thing I usually do most mornings when I wake up,even before using the BR, is to check the CNBC Driod app to check the price of gold and get a quick read on S&P futures, Euro markets and what happened overnight in Asia. Futures are firm this Wednesday morning. The accompanying headline on the CNBC app: “Stocks... Please read more: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/cnbcs-misplaced-facebook-cheer-bill-gross-spills-his-guts-about-gold/

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

End of the Road Documentary Trailer

"Is the financial crisis over, or are we heading towards disaster? End of The Road portrays eleven influential commentators within the finance and investment communities, as they share their knowledge of our current financial structure. Through each of their narratives, a story is built which chronicles the current economic dilemma and paints a picture of the world’s financial future."

My own commentary: My only criticism is that this documentary will feature the comments of Peter Schiff. I don't like his metals selling activities. You should take possesion of your gold and you should NEVER deal with any dealer that holds a so called "SALE" on precious metals. A sale means their mark ups were too high before the sale. No, the purchase of gold should be a proposition that DOES NOT involve sales gimmicks. Aside from that I am looking forward to this:


End of the Road Documentary Trailer from Tim Delmastro on Vimeo.

Why is Greece So Stuck?; Big Social Disorder in the Making

1/31/12
My thought after completing yesterday’s post was to do a more extensive analysis of the European situation. The bottom line, is that you are hearing talk about only a “partial” Greek default instead of what has been a classified a full and hard default that would be “disorderly”, as envisioned by various Euro government... READ MORE HERE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/why-is-greece-so-stuck-big-social-disorder-in-the-making/

Monday, January 30, 2012

Friday, January 27, 2012

More Economic Static

The final estimate of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product portray the economy growing at a slower than expected annual rate of 2.8 percent. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3 percent increase. So, of course, the consensus economists were wrong as usual. Now let’s suppose we do a... Please read more at... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/more-economic-static/

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Welcome to the World of QEx

The Federal Reserve is going where no central bank has gone before. Yesterday it outlined a ,,, please read more at:     http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/welcome-to-the-world-of-qex/

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Gaming the Fed; Gold Dip Just a Blip?

Markets are likely to get another dose of reality later in the day once the Federal Reserve announces its latest policy statement. Here’s the outlook from CNBC. I think this paragraph sums....

please read more at: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/gaming-the-fed-gold-dip-just-a-blip/

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

More Reasons for Gold to Move Higher; Still, No Greece Relief

1/24/12

While the price of gold is down by $10 this morning, there’s more anecdotal evidence that gold has plenty of room to the upside. First, I bring your attention to a report that Iran is going to be receiving gold for its oil from India instead of dollars. The big potential flaw in the plan is that dollar interests, namely the U.S. and its friends and families (eg NATO) are not so keen on anyone who would,,,, please click here to read more: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/more-reasons-for-gold-to-move-higher-still-no-greece-relief/

Monday, January 23, 2012

To QE or not to QE, That is the Question! Waiting on Greece

1/23/12
First, I wish to bring your attention to this week’s market calendar. It’s packed with all sorts goodies. This relatively calm Monday morning will transition to a much busier week ahead.... please read more at: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/to-qe-or-not-to-qe-that-is-the-question/

Sunday, January 22, 2012

RIP Joe Pa.

Thanks for the lessons in reputation building and how a reputation can so quickly be flushed down the toilet.  It never pays to look the other way.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Earnings Focus On Wall St; Economic Anecdotes; Gold Upward Momentum After a Brief Break

Earnings season has by a large been enough of a success for Wall Street. Since the start of the flow of reports the S&P has advanced from roughly the 1280 level to its present level of 1314. That equals better than 200 Dow points.,,, please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/earnings-focus-on-wall-st/

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

This Won't Have a Happy Ending

Another HUGE story that goes large unnoticed.

(Reuters) — The Treasury on Tuesday started dipping into federal pension funds in order to give the Obama administration more credit to pay government bills.

“I will be unable to invest fully” the federal employees retirement system fund beginning Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a letter to Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress.
The House of Representatives is expected to vote on Wednesday on the Obama administration’s request to raise the country’s legal debt limit to $16.394 trillion.

However, unless the lower chamber and the Senate are able to shore up enough votes to block the White House request, the debt limit will be increased by $1.2 trillion next Friday and a repeat of last year’s debt ceiling debacle will be averted.
People. Think MF Global and the 500,000 accounts that were filched. ANYthing can happen with pyschopaths desperate to keep the fiat ponzi going. You think your 401k is always going to be there? Think again.

The IMF is Gold’s Best Friend; U.S Stocks With the Biggest Exposure to Europe; No Inflation? Greece; SOPA

1/18/12
Gold is off the lows of the day at about $1650. Consolidation after a strong Tuesday. Another big bullish argument for gold is the IMF and what it wants to do.

The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending
capacity by $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any
worsening of Europe’s debt crisis, according to a person familiar....

read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-imf-is-golds-best-friend/

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Truth About Going Back to a Gold Standard

It's not as hard as the pyschopath bankers want to you to believe. It would actually be simple... so simpl that it is sickening.

 

Citi Rhymes With… Shhhhaving Cream; European Hopes; Gold Rally’ Crude Up: Carnival Stock Slumps

1/17/12
We knew the biggest of the big banks were broken. Citi has provided another shining example missing both revenue and EPS estimates by Wall Street’s esteemed teams of analysts. Were it not for a loan loss release of $1.5 billion, the reported net income number of $1.2 bln at Citi would have been negative... Please read more at : http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/citi-rhymes-with/

Monday, January 16, 2012

$$ Wall Street Break; Euro Zone Mess; Gold Rising; A Packed Calendar

1/16/12
On Friday, Europe got the downgrades that had been for weeks had been warned of and largely built into the markets pricing mechanism. While there was some closing market turmoil and drama Friday, Major Euro markets like the Dax, FTSE and Cac, are each trading modestly higher with gains of less than 1%. S&P... please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/wall-street-break/

Friday, January 13, 2012

The Apple Suppliers

Apple releases list of suppliers, represents 97% of procurement expenditures for materials, manufacturing, assembly in 2011.
• List includes: Broadcom, Advanced Micro, Intel, Sony, Analog Devices, Elpida Memory, Cypresss Semi, Flextronics, Intersil, Fairchild, Hon Hai Precision Industry, LG Dislpay, Marvell, Maxim Integrated, Qualcomm, Panasonic, Samsung, Toshiba, Nvidia, ON Semiconductor, Western Digital, TriQuint, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, Skyworks, Seagate, SanDisk, Renesas

JPM Morgan Misses; European Woes; The Singularity

Friday the 13th
1/13/12
JP Morgan missed revenue estimates and barely met profit expectations. Revenue dropped 17% in the quarter and profit declined 23% from the year ago 4th quarter.
This is supposed to be the “best in breed” bank and its woeful performance is telling a story – other banks are going to be posting some less than stellar results. In fact, these numbers are likely to look good compared to other 4th quarter profit reports that have yet to be revealed.. please remain more here:
  http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/jpm-morgan-misses/

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Hyperinflation is baaack; Weak Retail Data; Sears

1/12/11
Hyperinflation is rearing its ugly head again. There are numerous reports popping up on the twittersphere and the web that the latest round of... read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/hyperinflation-is-baaack-weak-retail-data-sears/

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

More Rise for Gold; European Gloom; Wall Street Back Peddles a Bit; Silver Buying

1/11/2012
The rally continues on for gold. That’s a good thing for the prudent investor who holds gold as a hedge, as insurance. It’s a bad thing for the vast majority since gold’s move is a reaction to on going bad headlines which this space said would resume in the second week of January once everyone... read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/more-rise-for-gold-european-gloom-wall-street-back-peddles-a-bit-silver-buying/

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

More Stock Rally Which Bodes Well for Gold Bulls

1/10/12
The paper gold shorts are taking it on the chin today as the metal rallies by nearly 2% to the 1635 level. The picture for gold is looking better as the dollar drifts a bit lower on speculation that there will not be a France credit downgrade for the foreseeable future, but that Italy... please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/more-stock-rally-which-bodes-well-for-gold-bulls/

Monday, January 9, 2012

The European Effect; Earnings Parade; 200 Years of Gold to Dow; Negative German Yields and more...

1/9/12
I am back from the FUN Coin Convention in Orlando, where the weather was a bit cool. I’ll have more perspective on the what I encountered at the convention. It was superbly run (as usual) by the FUN coordinators. My long time and good friend Scott Travers gave me the opportunity to make a... Please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-european-effect-earnings-parade-200-years-of-gold-to-dow-negative-german-yields-and-more/

Sunday, January 8, 2012

What if?

I've been away at the Orlando FUN coin convention and have just returned back to New York. I had the chance to make a few remarks at the Scott Travers and Maurice Rosen conference on Friday. One of the questions I fielded delved into whether the country would be better off with a new president in November, or if Obama should be re-elected.

My response was the election of either a democrat, or a republican would not result in any of the structural changes that are needed to cure what is ailing the nation. I see both parties as a big cabal feeding out of the hands of various interests who don't have the best interests of the American people in mind. We the people are now ignored.

Frankly, (and I told this to the gathering) a replacement of the present occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue could boost sentiment. But then again, Mickey Mouse, or Donald Duck would fill that bill. ha ha, but that's really a said commentary, isn't it?

In checking out Facebook today, a friend posted this interesting commentary by 'The Judge', one of their freer thinkers in an outside of the mainstream media sort of way.   What if?
 

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

A Wednesday Linkfest

1/4/12

It’s looking like a mixed open for Wall Street. Gold is down about .1%. I am preparing to travel to Florida today for the FUN Coin Convention, so no time for a full post this morning. Instead, a few links and StockTwits retweets (RT): The plot thickens: MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse... Please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/1412-linkfest/

Have a great day!

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Let the Nonsense Begin!

1/3/12 Market comment

Already, CNBC on this first trading day of the new year for U.S. markets is clanging the “hopes” bell. Early this morning the first text message out of the CNBC gate: “European stocks open higher; Merkel and Sarkozy to meet next week…” Is anything going to come from those two characters meeting yet again in the ongoing European game of trying to extend and pretend (think: more kicking the can down the road)? The answer is actually ‘YES and NO’ and that will be enough to aid (or fool) the markets in the short term. To what extent and for READ MORE HERE> http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/1521-2/

Monday, January 2, 2012

I was Wrong About Silver in 2011

1/2/12

In March, 2011 I took the pro silver side of a gold/silver debate in CoinAge Magazine on which metal would outperform on a percentage basis in 2011. My positive silver ideas were... Please read more here... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/i-was-wrong-about-silver-in-2011/

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Some Gold Thoughts

12/29/11
I have been asked a number of times recently where gold is going to trade over the course of 2012. I am not a seer, obviously. But I can make a few observations and guesses based on some emerging micro and macro trends.

I’m in the camp that feels that gold will get to $2,000 an ounce in 2012. ,,,, read more at
http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/some-gold-thoughts/

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

A Flick of the Financial Switch; Jeers for Sears; $GLD is a Mining Share Dampener; Coin Dealer TV Advice

12/27/11
We’re in the no man’s land between Christmas and the New Year. The usual survey of news flow comes up light, but this is still the same dangerous world in general and from a financial sense. Somewhat odd that the seemingly unstoppable lava flow of financial bad news from Europe, with the U.S. and Japan waiting in the wings, takes a break for a week? Who knew that on going chaos and catastrophe could simply sign off for the holidays? So maybe, since the world is supposed to end in less than a year....

Please read more... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/a-flick-of-the-financial-switch-jeers-for-sears-gld-is-a-mining-share-dampener-coin-dealer-tv-advice/

Friday, December 23, 2011

Temporary Bear De-Clawing; Economic Jumble…. Merry Christmas!

12/23 Market Comment
Stock futures show an upward tilt once again as seasonal factors favor the bulls. The more than 600 billion-euro 3 year bank loan program, for now, has de-clawed the bears. But Sorry... read on here... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/temporary-bear-de-clawing-economic-jumble-merry-christmas/

$$ Understanding Why Our Budgetary Process is So Broken

.... and the mere token solutions in terms of cuts that our politicians are only capable of. Ask yourself, can this go on forever??

Of course it can't. I am not in the doom and gloom prediction business of when the end will come, but you and I both know in our heart of hearts that the debt trap this country is in, is eventually going to blow. This will be the Mt Tambora explosion on mankind in terms of the financial destruction that will ravage pretty much everyone. This can't go on forever. The delusionists will say, says who? I say it's all in the math as plain as day. We are finite, so is our ability to 'print' our way out.

A reader sent this to me....

• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
• Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000

"Let's now remove seven zeros and pretend it's a household budget…

• Annual family income: $210,700
• Money the family spent: $380,200
• New debt on the credit card: $160,500
• Outstanding balance on the credit card: $1,427,100
• Total budget cuts: $3,850" – Anonymous

Thursday, December 22, 2011

$$ OT: Cultural Commentary about the Holidays

and a word to my son's elementary school in southeastern, NY and all schools like it (which is most schools in NYS). Thanks for completely denuding yourselves of the holidays. Yes, the pusillanimous Christmas/holiday haters have won hands down. At my 2nd grade son's school, I did not see one holiday symbol, not Santa, not even a Menorah, not even something about Kwanza -- nothing. Not that I was expecting a Nativity scene with a baby Jesus and the story explained, but it is as if the Grinch came in and vacuumed away the holidays and left just a grey and dull school entrance.
Back in the early 70's I remember the little Christmas tree in the cafeteria and how one of the students accidentally knocked it over and quietly walked off amid the confusion (lol). I remember my second grade teacher Mrs. Resnick playing us Hannukkah music and teaching us about the tradition's she celebrated. And you know what? I survived! We all survived! So i ignore the arguments that school is not the place for holiday traditions. Not so long ago it was and we were all the better for it. It was part of learning about our CULTURE and its roots. School has become a place run by heartless and pc administrators. To those in contral and allow this to happen, you all &**&! Merry Christmas!

$$ Market Cheer/Denial; Super Low Mortgage Rates; Gold Fever in Greece? A Dear Jamie Letter

As noted yesterday, seasonal factors tilt the odds in favor firmer prices, for now. Yesterday, the Dow clawed its way from the minus signs to etch out a 3 point gain. The techs were hammered on Oracle's tepid numbers. This morning stock futures are firm. Nothing has blown up in Europe over the last 15 hours. The markets are still digesting news of the over 600 bln in three year loans that will go to euro banks to stabilize them. Of course, these,,, please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/market-cheerdenial-super-low-mortgage-rates-gold-fever-in-greece-a-dear-jamie-letter/

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The NAR and its "Revisions" $$

How many here bought a house between 2007 and 2010 based partially on whatever positive spin your real estate agent may have used from the National Association of Realtors data? You participated in being fooled, at being an easy mark. You may have been told how there was activity, act now, etc. There was far less activity than previously claimed.

The NAR has released revised home sales figures. The National Association of Realtors revised existing home sales from 2007 to 2010 down by 14%. 2010 revised downwardly by 15%. This is confirmation of what everyone without rose colored glasses observed for themselves. Residential RE was undergoing a complete and utter pole axing during those years. The NAR calls these huge changes, “benchmark revisions”. Right. There was once a time when revisions meant perhaps a 2 or 3% adjustment. This isn’t a revision. This is a complete re-do of previous false data.

A side diatribe
Face it, realtors for the most part are simply salespeople on steroids (because of the value of the transactions). Yes, they have to pass courses and get a license, but this merely elevates the skills of any old car salesman to that of being a so called "professional" (in many cases, this is true of your stock broker). Now, I say 'for the most part', because my wife happens to be a realtor. She tells it like it is to potential customers. That means she looses out on a lot of potential sale opportunities. She doesn't want to play the game of going along with the home seller and listing a property at an excessive price that will only sit, which is still a problem, at least here in the lower Hudson valley. There are some good realtors (more shilling for my wife, but she deserves a good word, after all she donated a kidney to me and saved my life!), but they are in the minority. Most will do anything to get a listing and will say anything to get someone to buy. Watch out for them... the 3 to 6% commission makes it too tempting for most of them to be really above board. They are seduced by going to the closing table and getting that big commission check.
Rant Over

I would love to hear how the cadre of realtors are explaining this stuff away. lol.

Bottom Line: There is nothing good from these revisions. Deeper and as yet to be reported repercussions are likely in the new homes market. It is not out of the realm of possibility that starts of new construction may have had a basis in some form of over optimism about existing homes data. Oh, the possibilities.  Time will tell.

12/21/11 Jump, or Dump day on Hump day?

Morning Market Comment

After a 300 point Dow surge yesterday, stock futures are unchanged to a bit lower. No surprise there. Will the bulls be able to pull off more follow through. My guess is that thinner volume could make it easier to juice things up as we move toward the end of the year. Please read more at... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/122111-jump-or-dump-day-on-hump-day/

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Futures Traders, the Joke is On You!

Remember from a year ago? $CME head Duffy said that the CME is the guarantor of trades on its exchanges. Go ask a customer of $MF Glocal how that worked out. LOL, but really not a lol. Some serious, outright theft has happened related to MF and I can't and won't let this go until the money of thousands of customers is returned in some form.

This is about more than just the losses that an individual customer can suffer speculating in these markets. This is about the realization from the commodities reform of 2000 that Derivatives traders like JP Morgan have SENIOR status over everyone (buried, of course, in the fine print). Individual customers be damned, the derivatives players MUST remain whole.

When Johnny "the Don" Corzine was loosing big money, $JPM. as the lender to MF, had advanced warning that the MF house of cards was a about to fall, and with just a few key strokes hundreds of thousands of segregated MF accounts were frozen and then emptied -- cyber space can be handy with this sort of thing. As trends forecaster and burned Lind Waldock account holder, Gerald Celente has stated, "the gang is in control".

Read more here: Bloomberg: JPMorgan Actions as MF Global Lender Likely to Be Probed
Related: Barron's: The Silver Rush at MF Global


You can hear the lie below from the CME group head at 2 minutes and 22 seconds into the video.

Turnaround Tuesday? Housing, Europe, The Banks

A hodge podge of various events are stewing together to bring some ‘hope’ back to the market. Futures are bid higher and are indicative only of what is going to happen at the open – not for what will happen for the entire day. Bringing hope, a surprise rise in German business confidence, a drop...

http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/turnaround-tuesday-housing-europe-the-banks/

Monday, December 19, 2011

12/19 Morning Market Comments: Six Things Already Bugging Me This Week

This is the week leading into Christmas and it's supposed to be quiet. That's the usual pre Christmas routine. But this may not be a routine week. Some key items come to mind:
1. S&P has warned that it could downgrade a number of Euro-zone countries in the week ahead. This could add extra volatility to what would normally be a wind down week into Christmas and then the new year.... Please read on here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/6-things-are-already-bugging-me-this-week/?preview=true

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Thanks Founding Father's, But Your Dream is Just About Dead

I am going to wait and not make my endorsement in the Republican race known until the New Year. Certainly, Neither Mitt, nor Gnewt are getting my support -- that is unless I decide doing the same old thing and hoping for the best is the right way to go. And, of course, that is completely the wrong way to go. We might as well re elect Obama to hasten the collapse of the country.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

$$ A Quote

This statement from Alan Greenspan was made more than 20 years before he became chairman of the Fed.

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

--Alan Greenspan, Gold & Economic Freedom (1966)

Non Event Inflation News is Actually Big Wake Up Call News

On Friday the government reported November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that showed NO change in prices last month with a core CPI (factoring out useless things like food and energy due to their volatility) up a teeny weeny .2%. 

In other words, the government wants you to believe that the anecdotal price increases that you have observed (eg. everything getting seemingly more expensive from food to having your lawn mowed) is a just a figment of your imagination.

On an annual basis the government reports a peachy keen gain of only 3.2% in the overall CPI.  By this estimation alone, the government is implying that it would take over 20 years for the CPI to double, which of course is laughable - really - belly laughable, or so laughable that it would hurt.

The famed Shadow stats site, with its honest data vs the pablum the government regurgitates,  estimates that CPI is really running at around 7%.


But let's take Uncle Sam at his word. CPI thus far this year is up a tame 3.2%.

At the surface, this seems like good news. But it is actually a bad news scenario when the universe of money rates is considered. Here's a screen grab from CNBC of US rates. As seen here, the entire curve from 3 month bills to 30 year bonds is BELOW the seemingly tame 3.2% government inflation stat (Click to see larger and clearer image).


If the Shadow Stat CPI inflation figure of 7% is taken into account, negative rates are then running close to an almost unimaginable 10%. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

One could argue that with the core PCE price index, as of November, running at 1.7%, the negative yield umph is taken out of the benchmark 10 year, to which I say, 'whatevahhh'. Regardless of which inflaton number one uses, there is still a substantial chunk of the rate universe running in negative territory. I strive to shun the arcane and pseudo sophisticated economists' talk and stick to reality. So pick any inflation gauge. It doesn't really matter. That is to say that no one is getting rich from treasury yields in their present state when inflation is factored in. They are getting poorer.

Negative yields mean a loss of dollar purchasing power which makes us all the poorer. It begs the question, which is worse hyper inflation, or a loss of purchasing power? They are both bad and the loss of purchasing power is actually worse since it is an insidious and more abstract concept for the masses to follow. The November CPI figure is big reminder of the collapsing debt bubble we are in the midst of! This is money at its worst. IF you don't realize this, let me shout it out. This is ongoing FINANCIAL REPRESSION.

Put another way, the negative rate problem means millions of grannies and conservative investors, who have their dollar wealth tied up in CDs and other money market type instruments are losing wealth with each passing day as inflation (even at a modest 3.2%) quietly over time eats away at their wealth which is not only not producing income, but is contracting wealth due to a negative rate of return when inflation is factored in.

If knuckle sandwiching seniors and other conservative investors with negative rates isn't bad enough , consider this on the scale of central banks and governments which hold the lion's share of treasuries both in their own government's debt and their holdings of US debt.

Negative real interest rates plague not only the US, but all of the other biggies including China, Germany, Japan, Canada, etc.

Wow, it's no wonder that central banks have been busy buying gold in 2011. Take my word since I have already looked at all of this stuff, or investigate for yourself here: http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/investment_statistics/

Quick conclusion. The CPI release may have been a yawner on Friday, but it was still yet another jarring reminder of the predicament that fiat money is in: up a stinky creek with no paddle.

And a word to the wise deflationists. Yes, the negative rates are a deflatonary sign, but again, loss of dollar buying power is as bad if not worse than faster and hyperinflation.




Friday, December 16, 2011

Hope You Can’t On; Everything is OK; Gold Bounce; Ongoing RIM Wreck; $ZNGA

One of the more intriguing wire service reports that crossed during the session yesterday (and largely missed, or ignored by the markets) were a few comments by the IMF.... Read more here:  http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/hope-you-cant-on-everyting-is-ok-gold-bounce-ongoing-rim-wreck/

Thursday, December 15, 2011

The Gold Bull Market Takes a Breather; Spain Auction Makes it Thru; A $100 mln Penny

12/15/11 Market Comment

First a statment, or three about gold:
The bull market in gold remains intact. Looking at the decade long bull market in gold on a monthly basis, the 18 month moving average is at $1489/oz, or about $100 above present levels. Notice, that the only time the 1-1/2 year moving average was pierced was during the first leg of the financial crisis in 2008. Eventually the gold market righted itself and the secular rally resumed with force.... read more here: http://bit.ly/tHQUyK

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

A Simple little chart: Gold vs $SPY

This may not warm the hearts of the stock bulls -- many of whom either ignore gold, or just hate gold. The chart below shows gold and SPY. Gold is signified by the candles, SPY is the solid black lines. Clearly it is not a good thing for SPY when gold falls. Gold is actually somewhat of leading indicator as to what may may be next for stocks.

One other notable feature of this chart is the very low RSI on gold as of yesterday (since real time stockcharts.com doesn't display real time gold for some reason). That must come with the more expensive plan that also includes the salad bar. lol.

Gold could bounce a bit, it has today bounced off the lows at this point on extreme oversold conditions. But selling off of any near term bounce could resume in the absence of massive QE. I see vulnerability for the stock market (since it is not nearly as oversold as gold based on RSI) in the near term. This sure is very contrary to the seasonal Santa rally and then the upcoming January effect. But then again. it's not everyday that the market gets to deal with near implosion conditions in the EU.


My Time at Walmart: Why We Need Serious Welfare Reform


December 13, 2011 By crousselle
During the 2010 and 2011 summers, I was a cashier at Wal-Mart #1788 in Scarborough, Maine. I spent hours upon hours toiling away at a register, scanning, bagging, and dealing with questionable clientele. These were all expected parts of the job, and I was okay with it. What I didn’t expect to be part of my job at Wal-Mart was to witness massive amounts of welfare fraud and abuse.

I understand that sometimes, people are destitute. They need help, and they accept help from the state in order to feed their families. This is fine. It happens. I’m not against temporary aid helping those who truly need it. What I saw at Wal-Mart, however, was not temporary aid. I witnessed generations of families all relying on the state to buy food and other items. I literally witnessed small children asking their mothers if they could borrow their EBT cards.... Read more here:

http://thecollegeconservative.com/2011/12/13/my-time-at-walmart-why-we-need-serious-welfare-reform/

The European Liquidation, Gold Under Attack; Realty Games; Sell Yahoo!

12/14/11 Market comment
It appears that there is no joy in Mudville, at least at the present time. The markets remain in a bind over the European situation. While German interest rates are in the region of ZERO, the Italian bond yields have gone where no man has gone before (at a record high already at over ,,,, Please read more here:  http://bit.ly/txLOUf

A Brief Thought on the Stock Market and Markets in General

Which way the markets, everyone is asking. There is a lot of bearishness out there after the failure of the 100+ Tuesday morning Dow joyride.

I would like to remind everyone that the market's don't need to crash. Systemic seizure could easily and simply close the markets for trading for an extended period while they sort things out. Now, tell me, what chart is reflecting that sort of outcome? And yes, such closure would likely result in massive losses when markets are reopened.

Is seizure likely to happen soon? My guess is that there is 10% chance. Seizure would not sit well for a Obama campaign.

Be prepared for the unexpected. Super rally on more QE? That could happen, though we sure didn't get any fresh QE news. Collapsing economies that spark global seizure? The Fed is prepped to do everything possible to stop it, but always expect the unexpected.

In the short term, the Italian bond auction is a matter of hours away. Expect indications of ECB buying, or buying from somewhere to save the day. This could spark a traditional oversold SPX rally. If the Italian bond auction results are poor, or the auction fails -- well you know what will happen.

Just sayin'.

More Farce Confirmation: The National Assoc. of Realtors

From CNN:

Far fewer homes have been sold over the past five years than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 during the release of its next existing home sales report on Dec. 21.

This blog has often stated that the NAR is simply talking its own book and its numbers flawed. It is amazing that this group is even admitting its sales numbers have been way off.

Music Reflects The Defects of our Culture

I was listening to this great hit by the Eagles. It makes you wonder where all the great music has gone. Today's music if often bombastic in nature and downright violent in its lyrics. It's a commentary on the decay of society in general. And certainly, it's no surprise that our fiat debt system is close to collapsing. What will they do to keep it going?



 

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

New Blog Look

Sick and tired of that red background. Red is illuminati and we don't want that! lol.

I wanted to try something that's not bright white, but pleasant and relaxing since all of the news is horrible.

12/13/11 The Fed; MF Global; Gold; HR 1540; Cooking Up Stuff at Wal Mart and more...

12/13/11 Market comment
Today is Fed Tuesday. Since It's Christmas time (channeling Band Aid from 1984), I am not expecting much to be announced at 2:15ish ET. Could Bernanke pull one out of the hat and announce further easing (as in gotta keep BofA above 5)? Who knows what schemes lurk in the heart of the Bernank. Also for you know whats and giggles: The Fed doesn't have to announce a thing. Their dollar swaps and digi dollars are always on standby. They are after all (in their eyes), the masters... please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/121311-13rd-a-blog-post/

Monday, December 12, 2011

Very cool: The World's Most Valuable Gold Coiin

Check this video out -- Blanchard Sells Brasher Doubloon Gold Coin for Record $7.4 Million via

Euro Melt Back on (already); Blue Monday for Stocks

12/12 Market comment

As shared over the weekend, the grand Friday EU Summit certainly did not yield any lasting solutions. Already in Europe today, BTPs Yielding 1% More In Two Days Since LCH Margin Cut http://www.zerohedge.com/node/441594. UBS is warning AAA-Rated Euro-Area Downgrade ‘Inevitable’. Add to that, Moody’s is warning of a Euro wide review of sovereign debt. The Italian 10 year is already back to 6.71% and closing in on a 7-handle. Greek CDS and yields... Please read more here: http://bit.ly/s1qQWX Thanks!

France's AAA to be cut this week?

There has been speculation to that effect. Bring it on, this has been too long in the making. That France remains pegged at AAA is ridiculous to begin with and betrays the completely unrealistic realm in which these ratings agencies operate. These countries should all be in the C range, not anywhere near even a single-A!

Sell the rumor, buy the news.

The Euro Non Solution


0
Ummm.. tell me, the big Euro summit has accomplished exactly what? Promises to be good little boys and girls and adhere to “strict:” budget targets? That should have been done long, long ago. The elephant in the room that remains is this issue of sovereign indebtedness and sovereign solvency. Words on nice parchment treaty paper are not going to fix anything. These European problems threaten to drag on for months more, as they now have until MARCH to write a new treaty. God help them if any country decides it needs to referendum the matter and see what its people decide. I suspect something will blow up before March, or there will be some moment of near blowing up that will require some sort of coordinated rescue. The Central Banks see the short term result of their recent intervention and they surely must like playing god (notice the small-case g).
As meatloaf sang, 23 Out of 27 Ain’t Bad, and that’s what we have here. Britain is going its own way and wants nothing to do with this bull ___ (fill in the stinky blank). Britain will ultimately have to face its own fiscal ills and it will do it by itself, or with a little help from a friend (channeling the Beatles): The US Fed, Japan (if they can etc). It is taking the isolationist route. At total debt of nearly 1000% of GDP, it is destined to fail. Light out eventually, good night bub, and without the help of mainland Europe.

G10-Debt-distribution
This sobering chart has been making its way around the net. Yikes!

As for the stock market and gold, the BAD news is going to be GOOD news for the near term. There will be a fairly bullish bias to stocks until the recession in Europe starts to take victims in the U.S. Santa will try to stick around and then take a bow to the so called January effect. Eventually, the IMF is going to attempt to put a fire out, or the Fed will do so leading to more 'hopes' and the speculation that leads to volatility. Remember: The secret to their interventionist sauce, which is really not so secret, is that they are using monetary gasoline to put these fires out. That can only be good for gold in the long run. Long run for stocks? Perhaps not so good as the system crumbles under the weight of tremendous debt. As I’ve previously stated, 10s of trillions in funny money has already been magically produced to save only the banks, and no not by way of dead president notes, but through digital monetary creation of banking reserves which has kept things flowing. There cannot be seizure anywhere and the PTB will see it through for as long as it can.

When you think about it, if UK total debt to GDP is at about 1000%, Japan at somewhere in the 700% range; and both can have functioning societies, then how much time is left for the Fed with U.S. total debt at a “mere” 300% of GDP? This could be a drawn out problem, or am I giving too much credit to the Banksters who are keeping the ball rolling, as evidenced by the latest Wall Street rally? The doomers who are looking for it to all apart very soon, think that I give too much credence to the cleverness of banks who own the Fed in keeping our “system” alive, but hey — this has been an going theme for years. And yes, I am aware that past performance does not mean the same outcome in the future.

I am not saying that doom to the system won’t happen espescially when these excessive debt levels are taken in to consideration. When the paper fiat ponzi fails (since adding new debt to pay old debt is not a solution and will be laughed at by the future generations who will look back at this time), paper will go to its fair value of zero as the punishment for an abusive the system that puts the banking interests before all others in society. This end to fiat money has happened numerous times before. Google “currency death” just for fun.

Gold’s dollar valuation will get jostled as the dollar and other curerncies fall apart, but when all is said and done, gold will remain. It will still have value. That’s the long term key for anyone who is purchasing gold: long term VALUE vs the nothingness of paper when there's too much of it disguided as money (again, this has happened before). Sure, life will manage to go on, but the transition will surely be rotten; the desperation to keep things as they are now will get ugly. A workout of debt that exceeds GDP of many nations is not going to be pleasant. How could it be?

The big question now is timing. You may need to hold your gold wealth patiently for longer than expected and weather the storms. “They” will keep this fiat regime going for as long as possible, and that potentially could mean several years more of miserable extend and pretend. Not rocket science, not fear mongering, it’s a proposition of ridding oneself of the demons of denial and looking at reality. Whether 1000% of GDP in the UK, or 300% of GDP here in the U.S. -- now that's a reality that is not going to go away anytime soon by itself.  The transition out of this debt conundrum will be gut wrenching in the years to come.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Thursday 12/8/11 A Rough Day for Stocks, Gold Falls as Well

When the Dow makes a move of about 200 points (about 2%), or if gold moves by about 2%, I will provide extra market updates when possible. Today the Dow lost 198 points to 11,997 — to finish below the psychological 12k mark.

Gold took a $32 hit to $1712, or a decline of about 2%.

What went wrong for the bulls? In a word, Germany. It is maintaining the stiff upper lip, trying to take the high road on fiscal matters. As I have explained, Germany in particular, is not happy with the southern European part of the EU that is looking for massive bailout handouts. Germany today has shown this resentment .... please read more at: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/thursday-12811-a-rough-day-for-stocks-gold-falls-as-well/

$MF, the European Non Vacation, Charting Gold $GLD $GC_F

Jon Corzine of $MF infamy is going before the House Ag committee today. Aside from pre-written testimony expect the usual ‘I take the 5th’ dog and pony show. $1.2 bln remains missing at last check.

A late day rumor lifted the Dow to a gain 46 points in the final half hour surrounding talk of a $600 bln lnternational Monetary Fund loan. Those rumors are dead this morning and stocks are set to open lower. Gold is also headed south, as the dollar is up vs the euro on Draghi’s measures (see more below). Markets do not like the 3 yr loan scheme.  Read more here... http://bit.ly/rL1mLm

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Long Term Gold Performance Pulverizes Stocks

Over the past 11 years, it's been a nice ride for GOLD while it has not been much fun in stock land. Read more here about the performace of the SPX and Gold. Nothing complicated, just bare bones performance comparing the two. A picture tells a thousand words: http://bit.ly/slroOM $SPX $GLD $GC_F 3gold

Austerity Toilet Paper? SPX Gap Vs Santa; Gold in a Holding Pattern; European Banks Belly Up to the Bar

Let’s start with a product that is near and dear to all of us, but that we don’t talk about very often in normal conversation: Toilet Paper. We take it for granted. There are many choices available at the store for our different comfort levels. You can buy it in large quantities on a Costco run. Perhaps this is an extreme example of ‘austerity,’ but this is the sort of kooky stuff that you will be reading more.... Please continue here.... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/austerity-toilet-paper-real-money-gold-in-a-holding-pattern-european-banks-belly-up-to-the-bar/

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Less Hope Tuesday; Geithner to the Rescue?; S&P and its Flawed Ratings

12/6/11 Market Comment

The Broad Outlook
This is looking like a softer to mixed, maybe higher, maybe lower (who knows) Tuesday for Wall Street. CNBC is headlining Treasury Secretary Geithner and his trip to Europe. Timmy who? I had wondered where this master of funny money ceremonies had disappeared to. Says CNBC, “U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithne.... read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/less-hope-tuesday-geithner-to-the-rescue-sp-and-its-flawed-ratings/. Thanks!

Monday, December 5, 2011

12/5 More Rally, Gold drifts, Outlook remains Bullish


It was a wild week for the markets last week and stock markets are off to a strong start today. It is obvious that from an annualized perspective the strong returns for stocks during the past week cannot be maintained forever. There is probably a some more to go in this rally and then pause or even another decline before we see another big burst higher from some other sort of intervention. But think about it, to get a 7% weekly jump out of the Dow required a goosing of the market by the Federal Reserve due to some very dubious circumstances.

Please read more here: http://bit.ly/vpqFBk

Sunday, December 4, 2011

$$ Commentary on World Currency Talk $GC_F $SPY $UUP $EURUSD

My opinions on this matter could change depending on future events.

There is a lot of talk about a "world currency". whaaa? Wake up call!! There has been a world currency since the end of WWII. It's called the dollar!

Now, over 60 years later, the dollar is revealing itself as the paper fiat scheme that it became when Nixon ended the partial gold backing the dollar had until 1971. So the "world currency" talk is coming back to the fore. Please click the link to read more, for free. No strings.


It's a game, but the stakes are going higher, and its becoming a dangerous game.



Friday, December 2, 2011

Nothing like Fudge!! 12/2 market report

Nothing Like the Smell of Fudge! 12/2/11 Market Comment/Blog $$ $SPY #employment $RIMM

So why am I talking about fudge this morning? As a middle aged man,
fudge is really the last thing I should be consuming. Yet, every month I
receive a generous allowance of fudge courtesy of the Labor
Department’s whimsical monthly employment data. This ‘fudge’ arrives on
the first Friday of each month at 0830 ET. Yes, I am talking about the.... READ MORE....

http://stks.co/1MMy

Thursday, December 1, 2011

12/1/11 Market Comment

Morning blog market comment, My Take on the Fed, markets including gold and $SPX $GC_F $GLD $LULU $COST #bernanke

In the not too distant past, I discussed the special money creating app that came with Fed chairman Bernanke’s latest iPhone. It turns out, that he exported the app to various central banker chums around the world. On their conference call on Tuesday, sources tell me, they all called in at the same time to create a sort of app energy force (think Ghost Busters), where they were careful to not cross the streams. This energy force, which promises coordinated Central Bank intervention to prop up credit markets with liquidity did the trick and saved the day. The Central Banks have stolen a line from singer Carole King: “Winter, Spring, Summer, or Fall, all ya have to do is call, and I’ll be there, Yes I will. You’ve got a friend.” They will be there for all of their large banking friends and family. In all seriousness, it’s the potentecy, or efficacy of these injections going forward that has me wondering.

Read more here:

http://stks.co/1LCP

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Goldman's Hatzius and QE3

Jan Hatzius of $GS fame sees QE 3 coming during the first half of 2012.

That's what this blog has been saying would happen for quite some time. Expect some pain and plenty of volatility, and up days too, like today before the real QE3 curtain is opened. It will be Maloox country with out a doubt on Wall Street.

Ok, so what does this mean from an investing perspective? It will empower traders once again to bid up shares of stocks. So I would not be surprised to see a fairly large rally for Spring 2012 provided that the world is not turned completely upside down before that point.

Natually, this will help the metals, GOLD in particular. There will be many fools who will not listen and act again. The time is now to be accumulating gold.  QE3 is the fuel that is needed to blast the FED into an orbit of unlimited printing. This can only help gold. $2000 gold looks like a stretch for 2011, but it sure looks like a sure bet for 2012 if Jan is right, and again, there hasn't been systemic failure.

$$ Wednesday 11/20 Trading Desk Color

Our source at broad and Wall emails us with this account of trading desk activity

Desk color: risk-on day.  Early on, there was a lot of covering
but some (small) vanilla buying is starting to emerge as we head into the
afternoon.  The sentiment remains skeptical, w/many people poking holes in
today's actions (a lot even think the US$ swap rate cut was in response to
an imminent crisis that regulators were looking to forestall).  This is a
change from back in Oct where there was more faith in European
policymakers.  All that said, the price action can't be ignored and traders
continue to ask whether we are seeing the start of another Oct-like hope
rally (that one wound up being worth 20%; so far, this one is +7%).  There
is some chasing occurring in those names seeing the biggest moves (esp. the
steels/coals) but overall there is very much a macro focus w/people
buying stocks generally and correlations staying very elevated.  People are
watching 1250 and then the 200day MA (1265). We are likely to see our 2nd 90% up session in the last 3, recall we had 3 90% down days in 5 session heading into Monday...

11/30 Market Comment: Dow Spike Day!

My Blog: Another Dow Spike Day.... $SPY $FXE $GLD $GC_F $BAC $XLF $ADP # China #Greece #Germany #ECB #EU


The stock market is still captivated by each and every headline that comes from Europe. Yes, the problems there are well known yet all they do (whether the IMF, or various Eurozone officials) is talk. Where’s the concrete action? When action happens I anticipate another leg up in stocks. Blithering and breakup... READ THE REST HERE:
 http://stks.co/1Jr2

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

$AMR

 Hmm, should I get a gum ball with my quarter, or a share of $AMR? That's my two cents on the issue (where the stock may end up going). Right now $AMR is wooing in flies like potato salad on a picnic bench in August. What are they expecting? Some sort of miracle? It's not like an employee is going to discover a ton of gold in the lost and found and save the day.

$FXE Bond market always gives Us Clues First

As we are prone to point out. The Bond market always figures out 'stuff' first.

- ECB’s failure to fully sterilize its
SMP bond purchases today indicates a high level of stress as
liqudity is constrained and banks continue to deleverage, Dan
Dorrow, strategist at Faros Trading, writes in note.
• Failed sterilization shows banks prefering to hold O/n cash than tie up deposits for 1 wk at ECB’s auction: Faros
• The high bank liquidity demand is consistent with other stress indicators including EUR/USD basis swaps and Euribor/OIS spreads: Faros
• 3-mo EUR/USD basis swap -5.7bps to -154bps; most stressed level since October 2008
• Euribor/OIS spread climbs to 0.95, highest since Nov. 3
• Investor base for peripheral bonds have also disappeared, another sign of euro-zone stress, as Italy’s 3- and 10-yr auction both yielded above 7.5%: Faros
• ECB is less aggressive in addressing credit crunch than Fed
• The slower ECB is to respond, the more it will have to ultimately ease: Faros
• EUR/USD may be pressured lower as ECB replaces non-euro-zone investors base via its SMP purchases; many investors who have left may not return for a few quarters, even with a Troika solution: Faros
• ECB may have to cut rates to new historical lows below 1% and also actively expand balance sheet: Faros
• Easing measures to weigh on EUR/USD: Faros
• EUR/USD +0.1% to $1.3338; off session high of $1.3442 following news of ECB’s failed sterilization: Faros

Updated Morning Market comment: including Case Shiller data. More housing Gloom

11/29/11 Morning Market comment The Happy Faces are in for a battle on Wall Street. Futures have faded from the highs on word that American Airlines parent AMR has filed for bankruptcy protection. This offsets (you can’t make this stuff up) news that Italy (more below) managed to complete an auction of 3 and 10... Read more here: http://bit.ly/urC5LN

Morning Market Comment: Italy, European Developments, $AMR, $Tif Greece, Crude Oil 11/29/11

11/29/11 Morning Market comment The Happy Faces are in for a battle on Wall Street. Futures have faded from the highs on word that American Airlines parent AMR has filed for bankruptcy protection. This offsets (you can’t make this stuff up) news that Italy (more below) managed to complete an auction of 3 and 10... Read more here: http://bit.ly/urC5LN

Monday, November 28, 2011

Thursday, November 24, 2011

$$ SocGen Sues a Newspaper For "Disaster" Article

Read Here from CNBC.com http://soc.li/g6HOkrF. The Daily Mail of the UK is being sued by the French banking giant Societe Generale for an article published in August. The paper claimed Soc Gen was on the verge of crumbling. Curiously, the Mail should be responding with guns a blazin', but instead is cowering in a corner.

The truth is that banks have been and are in horrible shape. What is the Mail apologizing for? For US banks, it's clear that shoddy, but legal FASB accounting practices have amounted to these banks having two sets of books a la the worst ponzi and cheating schemes of all time - worse than Bernie Madoff, or even Mr. Ponzi himself. European banks are stuck with a pile of debt that is on the way to becoming huge write downs that will cause them to collapse one by one.

The Mail's biggest mistake? They should have spent a little more time to dig a little deeper and come up with better sourcing for their claims. They would have found it.

Banks have only themselves to blame for their emasculated share prices, the distrust of the people, and the move by people to consider the mattress as a safer alternative to deposit their money. SocGen sounds ridiculous when it claims it has suffered "substantial damage to its reputation and prejudice to its trade.”

I find the suit offensive. It wreaks of the wrath of the banking establishment coming down on a newspaper for saying the wrong things (in the view of the banks). The banking PC way to go is with the meme - 'that we have it all under control' when in reality the banks are actually INsolvent. True, the Mail is often over the top with its news coverage style, selection of stories, interviews, etc., but the Mail is not the authority of the financial world, yet its dose of wake up to its masses readership elicited quite a response. This is not what the banks want. The banks will stop at nothing to advance their all is ok reality. The Daily Mail did what amounts to a big no-no for giving the masses a hint, or two about what is really going on. For the banking cartel, that Freedom of the Price concept is dangerous.

 Even the most clueless must know that banks are still replete with bad assets that date back to a vintage that caused the 2008 financial crisis. Banks are reviled for receiving billions to trillions (the numbers are so big that an exact figure is debatable but still so large that it cannot be fathomed and is thus abstract except to say it was obscene) in government bailout money for taking risks that would make the best of the gamblers in Atlantic City turn red. The MF debacle has already scared many and has caused another leap in distrust of "banks". Stupid ideas like $5 ATM fees haven't helped. And let's not forget, the chief bankers behind their rape of society are still walking around in $2000 tailored suits. 

If you don't think this stuff isn't going on European banking circles, I have a bridge to sell ya. Banks around the globe have killed their own reputations.

The debt situation in Europe has long been festering. The first Greek bailout took place months before the Mail's August article. By implication of the growing problems that were all too clear by August (without the sensationalist news coverage the Mail is known for providing), banks were a marked lot -- marked for troubles.

Not that I'm a fan of the Daily Mail, but it is stupid for it to back down so quickly.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The 2 Yr Belgium is Uglier

This is going to be worse than 2008 since sovereigns are involved this time around. Be wary and prepared.


This is one ugly Picture

Someone sent me this picture. It's the yield on 10 year Belgium bonds....


Happy Thanksgiving to All!