Friday, June 29, 2012

The Latest Mini Rally Due to Euro Hopes



Brief Market Commentary
6/29/12
On my way to 12 year old Son’s golf award ceremony (the next Arnold Palmer in the making).
Another mini rally is at hand. The latest European Harry Houdini financial-move is based on creating new debt to replace old debt through the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM. The question of who pays for this supposed non sovereign route of rescuing banks through a European Bank Supervisor (who would need to be chosen by the end of the year remains to be seen). The broader issue of pooling debt remains to be resolved as well. For now, the market is seeing the glass as being half full and is rising. But let’s get something straight right away: The ESM is not a magic money machine
Read More Here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/2130-2/

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Why Gold (and silver) Are Important; Hi EU, Wouldn’t Want to Be You; The Great Housing Comeback



6/27/12
For those who have waited to buy gold, or silver as a form of financial insurance, what are you waiting for?? If people are holding off on allocating some of their dollar wealth toward an easy to buy hard asset, then they shall never get it – until it’s too late.
I was asked by a member of the press about where I thought... Please read more at: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/why-gold-and-silver-are-important-hi-eu-wouldnt-want-to-be-you-the-great-housing-comeback/

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Filthy Fed and Ugly Housing Data; Range Bound Gold and the Range Bound Fed


  • 6/21/12
    Eco Scribbles Not so Good
    The Philly Fed Survey Collapses… 

  • My pronouncements on housing have been on the money. It’s not rocket science. There is a lot of delusion out there about housing coming back. I deal with numbers and facts. Existing Home Sales MISS EXPECTATIONS, Fall 1.5% To 4.55M (Exp. -1.1% To 4.57M)... 

    Gold is Range Bound
    The gold struggle that I have talked about for much of the year continues. I am surprised that so many have been directionally bullish both near and longer term. Long term I see a rise for gold as a crumbling of the fiat system is 99-44/100% inevitable. However, I remind again, that so long as the dollar retains its favored status as the reserve currency of the world and a means to escape the euro, gold will remain in a trading range near term – a time-out mode, if you will.

  • Please READ MORE HERE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/range-bound-gold-and-the-fed/



Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The Housing Mess; Europe Gets Uglier; FED Meeting; The Trillion $ Retirement Problem and More



  • 6/19/12
    Housing
    Many tell me I am unreasonable in my negative outlook on housing for not only the next few years, but at least for a decade. I am willing to admit that certain hot markets like mid to lower Manhattan, or Greenwich, Connecticut do exist as the rare exceptions to an otherwise moribund housing picture. For the very wealthy who don’t need to be concerned with a 20% downpayment things are peachy, for the rest of mainstreet America it is a different story.
    The hyperster housing folks have more to work with today, or do they? Housing starts plunged from a revised 744K to 708K. Actual completions fell by a whopping 10%. Permits (promises to build at some future point) soared from 723K to an annualized rate of 780K. Let’s see first if the permits result in higher start numbers in the months ahead. June 30th marks the 3rd anniversary of Cramer’s proclamation that the bottom housing was in. LOL.
    Related and Supplemental: construction sector has been losing jobs for 5 months straight.. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USCONS
    European UnDelight
    Anyone start the day off buying 1 year Spanish bills with a record yield of 5.07? Last week’s “Spailout” of €125 billion received an underwhelming response because Spain really needs much, much more. 


    PLEASE READ MORE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-housing-mess-europe-gets-uglier-fed-meeting-the-trillion-retirement-problem-and-more/

Monday, June 18, 2012

Me in the Media; Bad Signs from Europe; Awaiting the Feds


Thursday, June 14, 2012

The On Going Gold vs Dollar Fight; It’s Greek to Me; Good Reasons to Buy Real Gold


Jobless Claims continue to hover close to the 400,000 per week mark at 386k — never mind what the economists were expecting. Picture it…. nearly 400 people a WEEK filing NEW claims for unemployment benefits – a national tragedy that is on going and glossed over by the separate monthly employment report’s headline number that pretends unemployment is below 10% when in actuality (by the governments own data) true unemployment remains near 20%.
The Wall Street reaction? A mini rally after a day of mini decline… or ZIG ZAG trading as I like to call it. Please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-on-going-gold-vs-dollar-fight-its-greek-to-me-good-reasons-to-buy-real-gold/

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Jamie Goes to Washington; Ziggy Zaggy Stocks; Stagflation Noise


6/13/12
JP Moron
Anyone expecting to learn much of anything from the Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan visit to our esteemed DC lawmakers will only receive a lesson in the cold, harsh reality of a jaded and broken system. The politicians will do their grandstanding and Jamie will claim that he has to be tight lipped and not give away proprietary information that could damage shareholders. There will be no great revelations. To some who are sanguine about JP Morgan losses, and suggest Congress has better things to do and that JPM really lost speculative bets with its OWN money — I don’t buy it. JP Morgan and associa...


PLEASE READ MORE: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/jamie-goes-to-washington-ziggy-zaggy-stocks-stagflation-noise/

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Those Jiggy Euro Yields; Net Worthless; The Private Sector is “Fine”?; Turkish Gold; KORS is a Monster $$



6/12/12

The news media is pretending this morning that all is quiet in Europe with a few articles out on the web even suggesting it’s time to BUY European securities, or at least to start nibbling. However, the Adventures of Alice in Euroland (as zerohedge.com puts it) continue. If you are a pro this situation remains complicated, so I wonder how the average investor would cope with buying European paper. According to ZH about the conditions that the pros face: PLEASE READ MORE: http://bit.ly/L2NZVm

Monday, June 11, 2012

Piddling Gains After the Spailout; Rising Spain Yields? Yikes! Poli Grip; A debt Visual

6/11/12


I tweeted over the weekend that if S&P futures failed to rally sharply (eg being up 20+ handles) that the bulls had better watch out. Unfortunately for Mr. Market, pre-market has faded the gains of last night in futures and are pointing to some piddling gains when the market opens. The Spain bank rescue known as the “Spailout” is seen as just buying a little extra time.


What’s really bad is that Spanish 10 year yields are rising and back above 6.5%. Ouch! Italian yields are also rising. Double ouch – like getting a seed stuck under dentures (if you ... please read more here:


http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/piddling-gains-after-the-spailout-rising-spain-yields-yikes-poli-grip-a-debt-visual/

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Spain Pain; Obama’s Funny Economics; JP Morgan’s Big Fine; Bernanke Passes the Baton


6/9/12
Spain Pain
Spain, it turns out,  is another Greece when all is said and done. The reports out today say Spain as agreed on 100-billion Euros in EU aid to shore up its banks. This is being depicted as an “unconditional” bailout.  Spain has really been flirting with a near death experience, but to suggest that this mega loan will come without conditions is the height of tomfoolery. What loan comes with no conditions? lol. If anyone can do an unconditional loan to drag me out of near insolvency due to medical bills, I’m all ears! rofl. This is akin to a TRILLION dollar bailout in the U.S. when you gauge the size of the amount of aid that the Spain banks need in relation to the size of the top TBTF banks of the U.S. Details will be forthcoming in the days ahead on what the actual terms are. Hint: Spain will be oppressed and has sold its soul making the giant error of paying off old debts and liabilities in exchange for new debt. Nothing stays swept under the rug forever. A key stumbling block to this is the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which still needs German ratification, which may or may not happen in the days ahead. German will get to bear the brunt of funding this loan. The U.S., since the IMF is involved, is also going to be close buddies with Spain as well. 


Barry O Just Doesn’t Know
Switching from the ridiculous to the ridiculous. Let’s just nip something in the bud right away. Barack Obama would like us to believe, as proclaimed on the campaign trail during the past week, that the financial ills started in Europe and that Europe is to blame for the present woeful state of the financial markets, labor market, real estate etc. To set the record straight – a refresher: The Lehman collapse in 2008 which got the ball rolling in earnest was an American financial entity – not European. The 2008 debacle actually has its roots in the subprime collapse that really took off in late 20006/2007. The dominoes that continue to fall to this day started to fall in the U.S. first. I repeat, Lehman was not a European bank. Lehman, et al actually were conduits to European banks who bought U.S. AAA rated CDO paper which ultimately blew up. Certainly Euro banks are not completely blameless because they failed to use their better judgment and fell for the phony sales come on from their U.S. counterparts and some European banking entities got into the packaging of the flawed CDOs; however, the worthless, phony paper was born here and exported overseas.  And to think, the financial terrorists who propelled the market over the edge in 2008 are by and large still around today and no doubt profiting from the present market chaos. What does this say about Barry O? He is, at best, in a state of major cognitive dissonance.


JP Morgan
Speaking of chaos. Let’s talk about the King of Chaos in the markets – JP Morgue as some call it. I like to call them JP Moron. This little story passed virtually unnoticed on the Reuters Wire late Friday morning:
(Reuters) – JPMorgan executed ‘wash trades’ on 10 separate occasions in U.S. crude oil and gasoline futures in the first half of last year in an effort to manage position limits, CME Group said in a disciplinary notice on Friday.
CME, which operates the New York Mercantile Exchange, ordered JPMorgan to pay a fine of $30,000.
“On 10 separate occasions between January 1, 2011, and June 30, 2011, in an effort to manage position limits, traders employed by JPM executed block trades between separate legal entities with the same beneficial owner in WTI or Gasoline during the last three days prior to expiration of the particular contract,” the notice said, referring to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main U.S. crude oil future.
“The (NYMEX Business Conduct Committee) Panel also found that in each of these 10 instances, the trader was the sole decision maker for both the buy and sell side of the trade.”
As part of the settlement, JPMorgan “neither admitted nor denied the rule violations,” the notice said.
Jim again: That’s actually a doozy of a little story. First, the $30,000 fine. What a joke, since JPM paid out $30 bln in comp last year we’re talking a millionth of a penny on the dollar in “fines”. Why is this a significant little story?  What JP Morgan was doing was conducting fraudulent wash trading.  As the article states, JPM “was the sole decision market for both the buy and sell side of the trade”. In other words, so much for the idea of market perfection where there is always someone else on the other side of the trade. JP Morgan was trading with itself.
And people wonder why I rail against the banking system? Some were offended that I call Dimon pond scum. Each time I write about Morgan, I regret that I called Dimon pond scum since I am offending pond scum which actually has a useful and important existence within the ecosystem.
Oh and it was pure coincidence, I’m sure, that this took place in early 2011. Far be it from moi to suggest that JPM was trying to manage losses in other markets at the time (like the exploding silver market in which JPM was massively short, lol).  Oh, the Chicago Merc (CME) by “fining” JPM 30 grand, essentially chose to look the other way. It is this pattern of wide ranging abuse that can have consequences far beyond what is seen on the surface. It is this pattern of abuse that makes me wonder if there is any real distinction between the trader/speculator and a so called investor since all are cast into a net of corrupt practices that originates from the top.
The natural tendency would be to short the daylights out of JP Moron, but if they can buy and sell stock in their own phony market where they are on both sides of the trade, why chance it?
I wonder if Jamie Dimon will remain ceo of Chase for very much longer?


Barry O Private Vs Public Sector
This is an interesting bit of Chartology…


Joe Weisenthal crunches the numbers: private-sector profits & investment ARE doing fine. Great actually. http://read.bi/LwNJOc


Weisenthal is clever, but lacks experience. In many ways the corpratists are doing fine as demonstrated by those charts. To what extent that prosperity is extended to rank and file, or to society overall is debatable.  What his series of charts fail to show is a misery index component. Are you better off now than 4 years ago, or even 8 or 12 years ago? Weisenthal could have included a chart of the record level of food stamp use, or the record level of disability aid being disbursed by the government. Oh, wait, even though those charts show parabolic growth, the severe upward slope in dependency on government benefits rates as a the wrong type of growth, or a big FAIL.
Overall, Obama sounds out of key by the talking about fine areas of the economy when the overall macro picture is messy: 


Obama Walks Back: ‘The Economy Is Not Doing Fine’ http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/06/08/Obama-Walks-Back-The-Economy-Is-Not-Doing-Fine


It didn’t take long for the Big O to reverse course, because (gratuitous political jab here) he has no real convictions that harmonize well with whatever is buzzing around in his head, or with the body politic. He’s a big thin skinned zero who remains true to one thing: the polls. Can you say narcissist – thought ya could (in my best Mr. Rogers voice).   


Ben S. Bernanke
Master of the financial universe Ben Bernanke spoke during the past week. He’s pretending to play coy with the markets – as if he has it all under control. That sent gold from a $1640 peak during the past week to a finish for the August futures contract at $1591 on Friday.  There were a few big takeaways from his remarks. To paraphrase, he told lawmakers that the Fed has done its share of the job, and now Congress needs to act in a fiscally prudent way. That means we are all screwed. Both sides of the aisle want to propagate their spending agendas which end up boiling down to Big Government just with a different emphasis between the parties. There is only one party in D.C. It is the party of BIG GOVERNMENT.  While it is all well and good that Bernanke is suggesting that CONgress do its job and tilt itself toward fiscal rectitude, Bernanke, through his modern technology known as the printing press has lulled Congress out of any sense of duty to be responsible since the printing has been there to make up for ongoing budget shortfalls. For Bernanke to be calling on our elected representatives to actually do something constructive now is coming a bit late in the game. In the end, Benny will have no choice but to turn the printing press back on.
Bernanke also uttered this quote. “No risk that JPMorgan is in danger”. This is what he said of the subprime part of the bond market when it started to collapse.  Bernanke has an uncanny track record for being wronger than wrong. But that’s what comes with economic academia. The consensus doesn’t catch on until the house is fully ablaze ignoring any sort of preceding smoke. I’ve got a box of Girl Scout cookies in the freezer for anyone who can tell me when the consensus of economists has predicted recession beforehand. Just in case my kids ate them, I have some cans of chick peas (great on salads) as an alternate prize.  


The other day I wondered aloud if Bernanke may actually have it out for Obama. The Daily Worker of Cable TV, PMS-NBC, has caught on to this suspicion.  Greenspan whether, or not by design, let George HW go down in flames in ‘92 with a cautious interest stance (yes back in the day when there were actually interest rates that savers could benefit from); though that picture is somewhat muddled by the spoiler kooky guy Ross Perot. And of course George HW didn’t come across as the brightest bulb when he marveled at supermarket scanning technology, and he was also downright weird with his New World Order talk.  But still I wonder what good Bernanke’s hand sitting will do for Barry O.


Is Ben Bernanke trying to get Mitt Romney elected president? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46979738/vp/47747774#47747774     


That wind bag guest, Peter Schiff, is half right. We certainly don’t need more funny money, but Schiff forgets that QE provides an illusory bump to the stock market which is what many people, by looking mostly at the Dow, see as a key gauge of their future wealth since a healthy Dow to the masses means that perhaps their 401ks are rising. HaHa, the joke’s on them. If No QE comes along this month, it certainly won’t be coming along in September, or October and that would mean a languishing stock market.
The S&P, Dow, etc., are managing to hold up on the notion that Bernanke’s hand may be forced. The next Fed meeting will be a week from Tuesday and then no meeting until July 31st/Aug 1.  The June meeting comes at a remarkable time, given that Greek elections are slated for the Sunday before.
I’ve oft state in this space that going with some amount of portfolio holding in gold is a guard against the financially unthinkable happening (ie. A sudden system reset). When you look at JP Morgan and the complicity of its family and friends, or that state of Europe, or the lack of leadership in Washington (and I think Romney will be as big government as Obama and George W. not much to be happy about in terms of poll choices but we could still use a fresh face at 1600 PA Ave) I just don’t understand the aversion that people have to gold. Oh, wait, I do. The current financial Ponzi masters are doing everything that they can to sully the reputation of gold. I’m amazed that so many are so easily fooled.

Friday, June 8, 2012

More Bank Bailouts; Gold Trading Range; Fedex Hike; Let’s Go to Mars


  • 6/7/12
    The Pain in Spain
    This morning we learn that Spain will request EU bank aid on Saturday. Does anyone get sick of banks needing aid that ultimately boils down to a taxpayer funded rescue? The latest chapter of this insanity is now focused on Europe, but you can bet it will happen again on U.S. shores if a financial emergency should arise again.
    Eu 100 bln is a likely bailout figure. Stay tuned. We’ll know more late day Saturday and... read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/2085-2/

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Which Market is Right? The Unemployment Plague


Which Market is Right?
So which market is correct? The stock market has rallied on hopes for more quantitative easing; while the gold market is a bit more skeptical about near term QE prospects and weakened late yesterday and is lower this morning. Oil and copper are also weak. At some point I feel Bernanke will have no choice but to err toward what Fed watchers call “accommodation,” but it is still a wait and see situation. Remember, it’s not that the world is back to business as usual, there are still plenty unresolved serious issues. Is that worth a 2.4% Dow gain that came largely in the last 15 minutes of Wednesday session? Read more here.. http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/2083-2/

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

A message from Wisconsin; Rally Time; Jokesters at the CBO; Gold Glitters

Congratulations to the mainstream media for being so totally wrong yesterday. The left wing part of the media was in a feeding fest that the recall vote in Wisconsin would be tight with the implication that Gov Walker would be kicked out. However, Fox (to its discredit), also regurgitated its own version of tight race talk. So like lemmings engaged in a ‘group think’ orgy they (the media) all went over the cliff. They are... Please read more here: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/a-message-from-wisconsin-rally-time-jokesters-at-the-cbo-gold-glitters/

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Bob Chapman Passes Away

This is sad news for his many fans and a big blow to good alternative-news information.
The memorials are already starting. RIP, Bob. I was honored to have him on my radio show last summer.

Further details at the funeral home link: http://obits.dignitymemorial.com/dignity-memorial/obituary.aspx?n=Robert-Chapman&lc=4345&pid=157941281&mid=5127734&locale=en_US

The Real Dollar Versus Gold Story



  • .... For $1 you barely receive any gold – just a fraction of a gram. With about 100% certainty the dollar will continue to crumble due to on going printing (the Fed has boxed itself in and can only print to infinity, or see the ‘system’ implode), a dollar will buy almost no gold within a short period of time.
    As was stated yesterday, there is a 100% failure rate to fiat currencies – the dollar will not be any different.
    Remember, an ounce of gold contains 31.103 grams of gold. A dollar bill is worth less than a quarter of a gram. No attention need be paid to the dollar index unless you are gaming gold as a short term speculation. 


    Read More here.... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/the-real-dollar-versus-gold-story/

Saturday, June 2, 2012

No Commentary Needed

This speaks for itself...


$$ Another 2008 in the Making? Be Extra Careful Out There; A New Leg Up for the Gold Bull?


I am prone to outbursts on Facebook. Last night i wrote:
"There is no housing recovery. There is no economic recovery. There is no
permanent solution to the Euro mess. Everyone finally get that with
today's data and other events? Great, now carry on. "

It seems as if everything is screwy and getting worse!
My thoughts had leaned toward believing that another full scale financial crisis would be delayed until after the elections this November. While no one can

PLEASE READ A BIT MORE HERE FREE of CHARGE.... http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/another-2008-in-the-making-be-extra-careful-out-there-a-new-leg-up-for-the-gold-bull/


Friday, June 1, 2012

Ugly Jobs Data – Will the Fed React? Gold Jumps; Real Estate to See Another Slump?

6/1/2012
I may hold some views on the near term direction of gold that are different from other gold bulls, but the state of the economy has not been something that I have been bullish about for a number of years.
Many have been fooled by a veritable cacophony of datum and data sets to further the idea of economic hope – that things are not all that bad.

Please read more: http://www.certifiedassets.com/inv/news/ugly-jobs-data-will-the-react-gold-jumps-real-estate-to-see-another-slump/