Tuesday, August 19, 2008

It;s Getting Dangerous Out There Again

Daily swings in the Dow not withstanding, a few indicators that are again showing credit market distress.

First, the ABX indices have been cliff diving again.

Here's but one of many AAA rated tranches:


FT.com also points out that Libor is back to two month highs:


The fear bid has made it's way back again, though on sluggish late August volume patterns.

We still see a larger than usual chance for market NYSE circuit breakers to be tripped sometime this fall where trading would be halted due to systemic failure risk. Enjoy the summer month "doldrums". Read the rest by subscribing. Click here, thanks!

Friday, August 8, 2008

A Summer Rally in the Making?

S&P encountering late afternoon resistance at the 50 day moving average. The "box" the we discussed earlier in the week has become a clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs. The 1325 area would be the next area of upward resistance. That indeed would mark a decent summer rally, as the Dow would be over the 12,000 level if.... To Read More Click here

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

08/05/08 Morning Thought

There's no doubt about it – commodities have collapsed. While crude oil steals the headlines, across the commods universe the carnage is quite evident: The CRB index is down -14.8% since July 3rd and is now less than 8pts from its 200-day (394.5) area. We haven't been below the 200-day since Sept. 2007.

Where crude is concerned $120 is a key area of support, should this fail, the next area of support is $110, which is also the 200 day simple moving average. Crude has also not traded below its 200 dma since early 2007.

The curious feature of yesterday's trading was that in spite of... read more by clicking here.

Friday, August 1, 2008

That Boxed in Feeling

Do You Feel Boxed In?
As noted in one of our recent missives, the S&P 500 is stuck in another one of its boxes.
How have boxes and general trends been resolved in this market over the past year? To the
downside. Just as the January lows were ultimately tested in March (and ultimately broken in
June), we anticipate another retesting of S&P 1200. Timing?
To read the full private report, please click here.